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081014 PUDI Report

Regular reports on the growing Poverty, Unemployment, Debt and Inequality of the neo-capitalist world

Europe:

The economic recovery which started in the EU in the spring of 2013 remains fragile and appears to have lost some momentum. Forecasts for 2014 and 2015 have recently been revised downwards, in particular for the euro area (EA). In the second quarter of 2014 GDP remained stable in the EA and increased moderately (+0.2%) in the EU. Output growth in the EA in particular, was pulled down by the weak performance of the three main economies: Germany, France and Italy.”

The increase in EU employment observed in the year to the first quarter of 2014 (+0.6%) could be seen as the combined outcome of three main factors. First, more than half of the annual increase was attributable to an increase in temporary contracts (+2.6%). Second, part-time work, which never declined throughout the crisis, had, continued to increase (+0.9%). Finally, and for the first time in the EU since the third quarter of 2011, there was an increase in the number of people working full time (+0.3%), equivalent to around 500.000 more people (mainly women aged 40-64) working full time.”

Long-term unemployment is a growing problem in the EU. Addressing long-term unemployment is an increasingly difficult challenge. Being out of work for an extended period reduces individuals' general and sector-specific skills and increases the probability of their becoming discouraged and looking less actively for jobs. In the first quarter of 2014, a total of 12.9 million people (5.3% of the labour force) had been unemployed for at least one year and more than half of these had been unemployed for more than two years. Long-term unemployment rates have reached historic highs in Greece and Spain and worryingly they are not decreasing.

At 21.6%, in August 2014, the EU unemployment rate for those aged 15 to 24 was more than twice the overall unemployment rate in the EU. Several of the Member States with very high youth unemployment rates recorded significantly lower levels compared to a year ago. Nevertheless, youth unemployment is very high and increasing in Italy. Youth unemployment rates in the EU range from around 10% or less in Member States less affected by labour market deterioration (e.g. Austria and Germany) to more than half of the young people active in the labour market in countries such as Greece and Spain, where youth unemployment is now nearly three times higher than in 2008.

More than 40% of young employees were on a temporary contract, 3.5 times more than amongst prime-age adults (25-54 years old), and nearly a quarter of young people work part-time, up from less than 20% in 2008. It should be noted that the decline in employment cannot be explained by more young people going into education, as the rate of young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) increased from 11% in 2008 to nearly 13% in 2010-2014.

Growth in nominal unit labour cost, which affects domestic prices and international competitiveness, remained subdued in the euro area as a whole, primarily reflecting weak growth in compensation per employee. Nevertheless, notable differences between Member States in the euro area remain, with Cyprus and Greece recording sharp contractions and Estonia a significant increase. Growth in real unit labour cost (which is also a measure of the labour income share) regained growth momentum in the euro area and in the EU as a whole, with Spain showing some increase after several years of persistent decreases. Overall, while recent data continue to show some positive and very welcome labour market developments, the economic recovery remains fragile, giving grounds for caution for the future.”

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