Hyper-automation
impact on unemployment rise - further shrinking of the middle class -
creation of a working elite - substitution of saturated Western
consumers with other emerging consumer tanks
The general
conclusions from the report The Future of Jobs, of the 2016 World
Economic Forum, leave little room for optimistic thoughts about the
future. They reflect what already most of us have realized: that the
combination of the current socio-economic model with the rapid
hyper-automation of production, lead to further imbalance and
inequality in favor of the very few.
As Stephen
Hawking mentioned recently: “If machines produce everything
we need, the outcome will depend on how things are distributed.
Everyone can enjoy a life of luxurious leisure if the
machine-produced wealth is shared, or most people can end up
miserably poor if the machine-owners successfully lobby against
wealth redistribution. So far, the trend seems to be toward the
second option, with technology driving ever-increasing inequality.”
Some
key points from the study:
Recent discussions about the
employment impact of disruptive change have often been polarized
between those who foresee limitless opportunities in newly
emerging job categories and prospects that improve workers’
productivity and liberate them from routine work, and those
that foresee massive labour substitution and displacement of jobs.
Academics, chief executives and labour leaders hold strong and
diverse views on the debate, as do policymakers. It is clear from
our data that while forecasts vary by industry and region,
momentous change is underway and that, ultimately, it is our
actions today that will determine whether that change mainly
results in massive displacement of workers or the emergence of new
opportunities. Without urgent and targeted action today to
manage the near-term transition and build a workforce with
futureproof skills, governments will have to cope with
ever-growing unemployment and inequality, and businesses with a
shrinking consumer base.
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Overall,
our respondents seem to take a negative view regarding the
upcoming employment impact of artificial intelligence, although
not on a scale that would lead to widespread societal upheaval—at
least up until the year 2020. By contrast, further unpacking
the bundle of technological drivers of change in the mould of the
Fourth Industrial Revolution yields a rather more optimistic
picture regarding the job creation potential of technologies such
as Big Data analytics, mobile internet, the Internet of Things and
robotics. [...] Our respondents expect strong employment
growth across the Architecture and Engineering and Computer and
Mathematical job families, a moderate decline in Manufacturing and
Production roles and a significant decline in Office and
Administrative roles. [...]
Conversely, 3D printing, resource-efficient sustainable production
and robotics are all seen as strong drivers of employment growth
in the Architecture and Engineering job family, in light of a
continued and fast-growing need for skilled technicians and
specialists to create and manage advanced and automated production
systems. This is expected to lead to a transformation of
manufacturing into a highly sophisticated sector where
high-skilled engineers are in strong demand to make the industrial
Internet of Things a reality.
The expected global decline in
total Manufacturing and Production roles is driven by
labour-substituting technologies such as additive manufacturing
and 3D printing as much as by more resource-efficient sustainable
product use, lower demand growth in ageing societies and threats
to global supply chains due to geopolitical volatility. Some
cautious optimism is warranted due to increased manufacturing
demand for advanced materials and comparatively favourable
expectations around robotics, pointing to the latter’s potential
for labour-complementing productivity enhancement rather than pure
job replacement.
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The study
estimates that there will be no “widespread societal upheaval—at
least up until the year 2020”, due to the takeover of jobs by
artificial intelligence, but is this realy a reason not to worry
seriously? Think about it: 2020 is only four years from now! Say, at
the end of the new US presidency.
Secondly,
the study actually confirms the trend for a limited working elite
between the top 1% (or less) and the bottom 99%. The 99% (or more),
which will be equalized in poverty due to the gradual elimination of
the middle class. This is expected to have a major impact on the
socio-economic stability, even of the most advanced societies.
As already
mentioned in previous article: “In the
middle of the pyramid, a restructured class will serve and secure the
domination of the top. Corporate executives, big journalists,
scientific elites, suppression forces. It is characteristic that
academic research is directed on the basis of the profits of big
corporations. Funding is directed increasingly to practical
applications in areas that can bring huge profits, like for example,
the higher automatization of production and therefore, the profit
increase through the restriction of jobs. The base of the pyramid
will be consisted by the majority of workers in global level, with
restricted wages, zero labor rights, and nearly zero opportunities
for activities other than consumption.”
[fa.ev/a-more-simple-model-in-favor]
However, by far the biggest
expected drivers of employment creation are demographic and
socio-economic in nature; in particular, the opportunities offered
by young demographics and rising middle classes in emerging
markets and the rising economic power and aspirations of
women. [...] The Consumer industry is likewise reducing its
Manufacturing and Production roles but anticipates at least stable
overall demand for Sales and Related jobs, as rising middle
classes in emerging markets, changing consumer values and, in
particular, the rising economic power of women, are significant
drivers of job growth in the sector.
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As also
mentioned: “The consumption-saturated and aging West, cannot
longer contribute to the rise of profits of the global economic elite
and therefore, through the economic crisis, the middle class is
systematically eliminated so that its consuming power to be "aligned"
with that of the majority of the huge populations of developing
countries.” [fa.ev/a-more-simple-model-in-favor]
There is a
huge potential of consumers due to unprecedented human population.
Once wages will further rise in China-South East Asia, to be aligned
with the shrinking Western wages, there will be plenty of consumers
to buy more products. However, this is probably only a transition
phase. It's not a matter of money, they can print as much as they
want. It's a matter of power and control. Once the elites reach the
point to control all the resources and the means of production, the
model will change from capitalism to global feudalism.
Where it is mentioned, the
artificial intelligence and machine learning driver is expected to
lead to negative employment outcomes in job families such as
Education and Training, Legal and Business and Financial
Operations. However, it appears our respondents do not believe
that these technologies will have advanced significantly enough by
the year 2020 to have a more widespread impact on global
employment levels. [...] current trends could lead to a net
employment impact of more than 5.1 million jobs lost to disruptive
labour market changes over the period 2015–2020, with a total
loss of 7.1 million jobs — two thirds of which are
concentrated in the Office and Administrative job family — and a
total gain of 2 million jobs, in several smaller job families.
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Despite that
the mixture of all above is quite explosive, there is no intention by
the governments and forces of the market to change the current model.
On the contrary, there is a tension for further privatization of
public property and businesses, and further deregulation of the
market in every level. Which means that the only way for the elites
to control the growing instability of this system, is by absolute
suppression:
“Having
secured the new labor force through fully automated machines, what
has left for the dominant elite now, is to take all the resources.
Big corporations are grabbing huge cultivable areas especially in the
developing countries in order to control food production. [...] We
see a rise of private armies that act in various battlefields, like
in Ukraine, exactly because in the absence of the nation-states and
the national armies, someone has to protect the natural resources and
the new means of production for the dominant elite. But when the arms
industry will fully automate the new weapons, private armies will
only serve as assistance to fully automated war machines. We already
see the test fields of the weapons of future˙ the drones in
Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere. It's not accidental that the arms
industries demonstrate new weapons designed to be used inside urban
areas for suppression of potential riots. There will be no "outside
enemy" in the future. The threat for the dominant system will
come from the interior, the big urban centers. Soldier-robots will
protect worker-robots and resources.”
[fa.ev/the-dominant-elite-ready-to-break.html]
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