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La victoire des talibans marquera-t-elle le début de la fin de l’empire occidental ?

Le simple fait de compter le coût de l’intervention occidentale en Afghanistan en vies militaires américaines ou britanniques constitue la preuve ultime que nous sommes une civilisation en décomposition
 
David Hearst

Partie 5 - Une vérité brutale
 
Il existe une alternative à cette logique folle qui consiste à penser que l’on fait la promotion de la démocratie en lâchant des drones sur des pauvres gens à des milliers de kilomètres. Imaginez un monde où les États-Unis auraient dépensé 2 000 milliards de dollars pour le peuple afghan. Un monde où ils auraient cherché à influencer des mouvements religieux conservateurs comme celui des talibans non pas par la guerre, mais par une stratégie basée sur le dialogue. Pas avec des drones, mais avec un dialogue.

Imaginez où en serait l’Afghanistan aujourd’hui, ainsi que la quantité de soft power que l’Occident détiendrait encore.

Quand ils se retirent, les États-Unis se soucient encore moins des populations qu’ils abandonnent que de celles qu’ils occupent. Un exode se produit en ce moment même à l’aéroport de Kaboul. Où ces Afghans vont-ils finir ?

On sait que seule une fraction d’entre eux arrivera au Royaume-Uni ou aux États-Unis. Ils se dirigeront vers la Turquie et l’Europe comme ils l’ont fait par le passé. Dans la conscience libérale occidentale, ils passeront instantanément du statut de réfugiés fuyant l’oppression islamiste à celui de migrants indésirables.

Les scènes de panique observées lundi à l’aéroport de Kaboul se répercutent aujourd’hui dans toutes les capitales européennes.

Le président français Emmanuel Macron a déclaré que l’Europe devait « anticiper et [se] protéger contre des flux migratoires irréguliers ». Le ministre allemand de l’Intérieur, Horst Seehofer, a estimé que jusqu’à cinq millions de personnes devraient fuir l’Afghanistan.

L’Allemagne a accepté des centaines de milliers de personnes au cours du flux de migrants observé en 2015. Le dirigeant chrétien-démocrate allemand Armin Laschet s’est montré catégorique : « 2015 ne doit pas se répéter. » Ces mêmes nations qui ont fourni des troupes et des généraux à la FIAS ne sont pas disposées à accepter les conséquences humaines de leurs actes. 

La vérité brutale est que l’Occident ne peut plus dominer le monde en lâchant des bombes sur les régimes qu’il n’aime pas, mais qu’il ne peut pas non plus se retirer. On peut quitter le Moyen-Orient, mais il ne nous quittera jamais.

La guerre en Afghanistan a été perdue par une alliance occidentale hypertrophiée qui pensait pouvoir démolir les talibans et construire un nouveau pays à partir de rien, tout en ignorant son histoire, ses langues et ses peuples.

L’Occident a seulement réussi à répandre sur deux décennies la brutalité et la misère de la guerre, dont les effets ont été majoritairement supportés par les Afghans eux-mêmes. Le simple fait de compter le coût de cette intervention en vies militaires américaines et britanniques, comme nous le faisons encore aujourd’hui, constitue la preuve ultime que nous sommes une civilisation en décomposition.

La tragédie tient au fait que dans leur retrait, les États-Unis n’apprendront pas la vérité difficile à entendre selon laquelle la force n’a aucune utilité. Ils ne comprendront pas non plus qu’ils sont une puissance en déclin. Ils se retrancheront dans la victimisation et l’isolationnisme, comme ils l’ont fait par le passé. Leur discours sera que le monde est ingrat. 

S’ils tiraient les enseignements de leurs défaites militaires, ils commenceraient à faire ce qu’il faut dans un monde qui est réellement confronté à une menace existentielle commune. Cette menace ne provenait pas du communisme, pas plus qu’elle n’émane de l’islam. 

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