Alex
Gorka
An EU summit
without the UK prime minister on 16 September in Bratislava will kick
off the discussions on the EU’s future. The summit is «informal»,
because the UK has not yet left the Union, but its prime minister is
not invited. Slovakia, whose positions on Europe’s migration
policies have diverged sharply from those of the Commission and
western European powers, holds the EU’s rotating Council
presidency.
The decision
to meet outside Brussels is intended to send a signal that Eastern
European countries will be given more of a say on issues that have
traditionally been the domain of core European powers like the UK,
France, Germany and Italy. The EU members are divided over how to
move forward. Some countries, led by France, Germany and Italy, have
pushed for greater integration among EU countries, while others —
especially in Eastern Europe — said there was a need to go slow.
According to Belgian Prime Minister Charles, Michel countries that
want to integrate more quickly should "be able to do so without
being hindered by those who choose to take a bit more time to
advance."
Member
states in Central and Eastern Europe are suspicious of such moves
towards a "two-speed" Europe.
Brexit
allows adding new issues to the agenda. Five chiefs of governments -
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, German Chancellor Angela Merkel,
Beata Szydlo (Poland), Bohuslav Sobotka (the Czech Republic) and
Viktor Orbán (Hungary) - concurred on the need to begin a debate on
raising a common European army. The project is a clear call for
Europe’s independence in the field of security which has been so
far strongly rejected by the UK.
This is a
major policy shift - a step to European identity and away from the
dependence on the United States and US-led NATO.
But the
summit will not be about Brexit or the divorce talks, but rather on
the need for the EU to undergo deep reform if it wants to survive at
a time when nationalism prevails over common European action.
The EU has
never seen such hard times in its history. «The purpose, even
existence, of our Union is being questioned», EU foreign policy
chief Federica Mogherini wrote in the foreword to the EU Global
Strategy on Foreign and Security Policy – the new document that saw
light in late June.
«The crises
within and beyond our borders are affecting directly our citizens»,
she underscored.
Indeed, the
Union is facing a host of burning issues to tackle, such as: growing
national debts of some member states, the terrorist threat that has
not been countered effectively so far, the unprecedented inflow of
migrants and the structural crisis illustrated by Brexit.
«Brexit is
a turning point in the history of European integration», Merkel said
at a joint news conference with leaders of the Visegrad group in
Warsaw.
«It’s
important that we come up with an appropriate response», she added.
In late
August, Italian PM hosted French and German leaders for trilateral
talks to lay the groundwork for larger Bratislava meeting. Renzi
chose the island because of its part in the foundation of the EU, the
Italian government said. Imprisoned there during the Second World
War, two Italian intellectuals, Ernesto Rossi and Altiero Spinelli,
wrote the influential «Ventotene manifesto» calling for a
federation of European states.
EU states
are divided on what direction the bloc should take to counter
mounting Euroscepticism, of which the Brexit vote is the most
dramatic example. Brussels and other capitals fear calls for similar
in/out referendums could multiply, most imminently in the
Netherlands. Faced with existential risks, Merkel wants to cement "a
better Europe" rather than forge ahead with "more Europe."
Renzi wants Italy to have a strong voice in how the bloc's future is
shaped after Brexit and Hollande wants an EU-wide investment plan to
be doubled. The three leaders also differ over how to boost the
eurozone’s flagging economy, with Hollande and Renzi both broadly
backing more investment and greater harmonization, but Merkel is
anxious to preserve the bloc’s integrity and above all not
undermine its deficit and debt rules.
The
Eurosceptics and «populist movements» are on the rise across Europe
including Germany. The Angela Merkel's ruling CDU party was beaten
into third place by an anti-immigrant and anti-Islam party in the
Mecklenburg-West Pomerania vote on September 4. The Alternative fuer
Deutschland (AfD) Party took just under 21% of the vote behind the
centre-left SPD's 30%. The German chancellor's CDU was backed by only
19% of voters, its worst ever result in the state. The vote was seen
as a key test before German parliamentary elections in 2017. It is
especially embarrassing as the state is where Merkel has her
parliamentary constituency. The result had great symbolic power ahead
of next year's federal election and would add impetus to Berlin
city-state's election on September 18. It puts into doubt the
nation’s role as the EU’s driving force.
The news is
being taken as yet another bellwether that the far-Right is once
again ascendant in Europe. Hungary and Poland both have less than 0.2
per cent Muslim population, yet a recent Pew Research survey shows
that the populations of these two whitest and Christian of European
countries hold the most virulently anti-migrant and anti-Muslim
views.
Political
leaders weakened at home, as Mrs. Merkel now is, are less able to
take the decisions at a supra-national level (on migration, global
trade and the Euro) that are necessary to create the economic growth
needed to quiet the current populist upheaval.
In the near
future, a string of events may greatly weaken the European Union.
The 2016
Basque parliamentary election will be held on September 25, 2016, to
elect the 11th Basque Parliament, the regional legislature of the
Spanish autonomous community of the Basque Country. The event could
change the political calculus. After the election, the Basque
nationalists will likely return to Madrid with requests for more
money and local empowerment, adding to the strain on a constitutional
model that’s struggling to handle national divisions and a
separatist push in Catalonia.
In October,
Italians will vote on his Democratic Party’s plan to enact the most
ambitious government overhaul in decades: a bid to end unstable
coalition building by stripping the upper house of parliament of the
ability to bring down governments. The number of senators would be
cut by two-thirds. PM Renzi pledged to quit if he loses, a move that
could benefit the anti-establishment Five Star Movement.
In early
October, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban called the vote on
whether the EU should be able to order Hungary to accept the
settlement of migrants without parliament’s consent. The Hungarian
government has opposed any EU plan to relocate asylum seekers across
the EU. This might lead to an EU exit vote. A Hunxit, perhaps? Such a
possibility is not excluded.
Austria will
re-run a presidential election run-off on October 2, giving far-right
Eurosceptic candidate Norbert Hofer the chance to reverse a
wafer-thin defeat. Hofer lost out to pro-European former Green Party
leader Alexander Van der Bellen. But Austria's highest court annulled
the vote and required a re-run. The win of the Freedom Party’s
candidate will mark an unprecedented victory for the EU’s populist
right.
The next
Dutch general elections will take place no later than 15 March 2017
to determine whether far-right populist Geert Wilders and his Freedom
Party will get enough votes to form a government. Mr. Wilders pledged
to immediately pull the Netherlands out of the EU should he become
prime minister.
Scheduled
for October, regional elections in the Czech Republic will become a
test to Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka’s power in his own Social
Democratic party. A poor result could revive the attempts inside the
party to oust Sobotka and replace him with a more Eurosceptic leader.
The history
of EU integration has not been a bed of roses. It’s enough to
remember the EU vote that resulted in the dismantling of the EU
Constitution in 2005 and the problems the EU had to overcome pushing
the Lisbon Treaty through. Now the whole United Europe project is on
the brink of survival.
Despite all
the burning issues the bloc faces, Russia tops the list of EU’s
security threats! «Russia represents a key strategic challenge»,
states the EU Global Strategy. Moscow has nothing to do with
terrorism, migrant flows, economic stagnation and national debts. It
did not tell the UK to organize the Brexit referendum. Russia did not
create the EU bloated bureaucracy which causes public discontent in
the member states. Perhaps, under the circumstances, the EU leaders
would do better to consider carefully the Union's mistakes and
failures over the recent years instead of looking for a scapegoat to
distract public attention from the gist of the problem.
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