As
President Donald Trump prepares to host Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu next week, a group of U.S. intelligence veterans
offers corrections to a number of false accusations that have been
leveled against Iran.
by
Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
MEMORANDUM
FOR: The President
FROM:
Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
SUBJECT:
War With Iran
Part
5 – Getting Snookered Into War
We
believe that the mounting Iran hysteria evident in the U.S. media and
reflected in Beltway groupthink has largely been generated by Saudi
Arabia and Israel, who nurture their own aspirations for regional
political and military supremacy. There are no actual American vital
interests at stake and it is past time to pause and take a step
backwards to consider what those interests actually are in a region
that has seen nothing but disaster since 2003. Countering an assumed
Iranian threat that is minimal and triggering a war would be
catastrophic and would exacerbate instability, likely leading to a
breakdown in the current political alignment of the entire Middle
East. It would be costly for the United States.
Iran is
not militarily formidable, but its ability to fight on the defensive
against U.S. naval and air forces is considerable and can cause high
casualties. There appears to be a perception in the Defense
Department that Iran could be defeated in a matter of days, but we
would warn that such predictions tend to be based on overly
optimistic projections, witness the outcomes in Afghanistan and Iraq.
In addition, Tehran would be able again to unleash terrorist
resources throughout the region, endangering U.S. military and
diplomats based there as well as American travelers and businesses.
The terrorist threat might easily extend beyond the Middle East into
Europe and also the United States, while the dollar costs of a major
new conflict and its aftermath could break the bank, literally.
Another
major consideration before ratcheting up hostilities should be that a
war with Iran might not be containable. As the warning from President
Vladimir Putin to Netanyahu made clear, other major powers have
interests in what goes on in the Persian Gulf, and there is a real
danger that a regional war could have global consequences.
In sum,
we see a growing risk that the U.S. will become drawn into
hostilities on pretexts fabricated by Israel and Saudi Arabia for
their actual common objective (“regime change” in Iran). A
confluence of factors and misconceptions about what is at stake and
how such a conflict is likely to develop, coming from both inside and
outside the Administration have, unfortunately, made such an outcome
increasingly likely.
We have
seen this picture before, just 15 years ago in Iraq, which should
serve as a warning. The prevailing perception of threat that the
Mullahs of Iran allegedly pose directly against the security of the
U.S. is largely contrived. Even if all the allegations were true,
they would not justify an Iraq-style “preventive war” violating
national as well as international law. An ill-considered U.S.
intervention in Iran is surely not worth the horrific humanitarian,
military, economic, and political cost to be paid if Washington
allows itself to become part of an armed attack.
***
FOR
THE STEERING GROUP, VETERAN INTELLIGENCE PROFESSIONALS FOR SANITY
William
Binney, former NSA Technical Director for World Geopolitical &
Military Analysis; Co-founder of NSA’s Signals Intelligence
Automation Research Center (ret.)
Kathleen
Christison, CIA, Senior Analyst on Middle East (ret.)
Graham
E. Fuller, Vice-Chair, National Intelligence Council (ret.)
Philip
Giraldi, CIA, Operations Officer (ret.)
Matthew
Hoh, former Capt., USMC Iraq; Foreign Service Officer, Afghanistan
(associate VIPS)
Larry C.
Johnson, former CIA and State Department Counter Terrorism officer
Michael
S. Kearns, Captain, USAF; ex-Master SERE Instructor for Strategic
Reconnaissance Operations (NSA/DIA) and Special Mission Units (JSOC)
(ret.)
John
Brady Kiesling, Foreign Service Officer; resigned Feb. 27, 2003 as
Political Counselor, U.S. Embassy, Athens, in protest against the
U.S. attack on Iraq (ret.)
John
Kiriakou, Former CIA Counterterrorism Officer and former senior
investigator, Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Edward
Loomis, Jr., former NSA Technical Director for the Office of Signals
Processing (ret.)
David
MacMichael, National Intelligence Council, National Intelligence
Estimates Officer (ret.)
Ray
McGovern, former US Army infantry/intelligence officer & CIA
analyst; CIA Presidential briefer (ret.)
Elizabeth
Murray, Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Near East (ret.)
Todd E.
Pierce, MAJ, US Army Judge Advocate (ret.)
Coleen
Rowley, FBI Special Agent and former Minneapolis Division Legal
Counsel (ret.)
Greg
Thielmann, former Director of the Strategic, Proliferation, and
Military Affairs Office, State Department Bureau of Intelligence &
Research (INR), and former senior staffer on Senate Intelligence
Committee (ret.)
Kirk
Wiebe, former Senior Analyst, SIGINT Automation Research Center, NSA
ret.)
Lawrence
Wilkerson, Colonel (USA, ret.), former Chief of Staff for Secretary
of State; Distinguished Visiting Professor, College of William and
Mary (associate VIPS)
Sarah G.
Wilton, CDR, USNR, (ret.); Defense Intelligence Agency (ret.)
Robert
Wing, former Foreign Service Officer (associate VIPS)
Ann
Wright, Colonel, US Army (ret.); also Foreign Service Officer who,
like Political Counselor John Brady Kiesling, resigned in opposition
to the war on Iraq
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