by
Peter Symonds
Just
days after President Donald Trump publicly threatened Iran with
“consequences the likes of which few throughout history have
ever suffered,” his National Security Adviser John Bolton held
a top-level meeting to discuss US plans to confront Iran.
Notorious
for his own belligerent threats against Iran, Bolton chairs the
Principals Committee on national security matters, whose members
include Defence Secretary Jim Mattis and Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo. Officials told the Wall Street Journal it was only the third
such meeting Bolton had convened since his installation as national
security adviser in April.
In May,
the Trump administration effectively sabotaged the 2015 deal with
Iran, under which Tehran severely restricted its nuclear programs and
placed its nuclear facilities under intense international scrutiny in
exchange for the winding back of crippling economic sanctions.
US
sanctions will be re-imposed next month on Iran’s auto industry, as
well as trade in gold and other metals. In November, bans will come
into force on Iran’s energy sector—the mainstay of its exports
and government finances—along with shipping and insurance and
central bank transactions. Washington has vowed to reduce Iranian oil
exports to near zero.
The
Trump administration’s decisions have provocatively ramped up a
dangerous confrontation with Iran. They also have worsened relations
with US allies in Europe, which have developed economic links with
Tehran since 2015. Washington has refused to exempt European
companies from the sanctions, thus threatening to exclude them from
the US financial system if they continue to do business with Iran.
No
official statement was made following the Principals Committee
meeting, but its purpose was clearly to plan how to ramp up the
pressure on Iran. Officials told the Wall Street Journal the meeting
discussed a “holistic” strategy to undermine Iranian influence
throughout the Middle East. While it was unclear what military
options were discussed, the article noted that the Defence Department
had in the past “worked on limited military options.”
An
Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) article last Friday
provided further evidence that the Trump administration is preparing
to attack Iran. “Senior figures in the Turnbull [Australian]
Government have told the ABC they believe the United States is
prepared to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities, perhaps as early as
next month, and that Australia is poised to help identify possible
targets,” it stated.
Citing
senior government sources, the ABC reported that Australian
facilities would likely play a role in providing the US military with
intelligence to wage war against Iran. While the sources denied that
Australia would be involved in “active targeting,” the
joint US-Australian spy base at Pine Gap in central Australia
provides intelligence for a broad sweep of territory from the Middle
East to East Asia, and also has provided targeting information for US
drone assassinations.
The ABC
suggested that “analysts from the little-known spy agency
Australian Geospatial-Intelligence Organisation (AGO) would also be
expected to play a part.” The AGO uses satellite and aircraft
imagery to provide geographical intelligence (GEOINT) that could be
used for targeting in various military operations.
US
Defence Secretary Mattis and Australian Prime Minister Malcolm
Turnbull tried to dismiss the ABC report. Mattis declared it was
“fiction,” adding: “I’m confident that it’s not
something that’s being considered right now.” Turnbull,
however, stopped short of a complete denial, saying only that the ABC
story “has not benefited from any consultation with me, the
foreign minister, the defence minister or the Chief of the Defence
Force.”
Mattis
insisted the Trump administration had no plans for regime change in
Iran. “There’s none that’s been instituted,” he
claimed, but declared that “we need them to change their
behaviour on a number of threats that they can pose with their
military, with their secret services, with their surrogates and with
their proxies.”
In
reality, far from Iran posing a threat to the US, successive American
administrations have menaced Iran with the full force of the US
military, and sought to destabilise the regime in Tehran. Having torn
up the 2015 agreement, the US is undoubtedly considering all its
options, including military ones, in order to end what it regards as
a significant obstacle to its domination in the Middle East.
The
Israeli-based Haaretz newspaper reported late last month on tactical
differences within the Trump administration over Iran, with Bolton
pressing to exploit social unrest to engineer regime change. “One
person who recently spoke with senior White House officials on the
subject summarised Bolton’s view in the words: ‘One little kick
and they’re done’,” it stated. Mattis, on the other hand,
reportedly warned that such efforts could lead to full-scale war.
In early
July, Axios reported that Israel and the US had “formed a joint
working group a few months ago that is focused on internal efforts to
encourage protests within Iran and pressure the country’s
government.”
Ahead of
next month’s sanctions, on the weekend the Iranian rial plunged in
value to 111,500 against one US dollar on the unofficial market, from
about 97,500 rials, according to a foreign exchange website. The
currency has lost half of its value since April amid fears about the
sanctions’ impact on the economy.
Deliberately
exacerbating social tensions inside Iran, however, could fuel an
explosive movement of working people against the Islamic regime in
Tehran that would not be to Washington’s liking. In late 2017 and
early 2018, mass protests of workers erupted over worsening social
conditions and widening social inequality. These demonstrations had a
completely different class character to the so-called Green Movement
of the upper-middle classes of Tehran that sought to overturn the
2009 presidential election.
A mass
movement of the Iranian working class would reverberate throughout
the region, where workers in every country face a deepening social
crisis.
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