Turkish invasion in Syria: Erdogan achieves primary goals

failed evolution

It is generally acceptable that the Kurdish forces have played a critical role for the defeat of the Jihadist extremists in North Syria. It is almost certain that the Americans were ready to reward them by giving them full control of the region. And this is something that could open the road for the first fully autonomous Kurdish state. Besides, this prospect was compatible with the US plans for re-designing the Middle East borders.

This was something that certainly alarmed Erdogan because it could unleash his worst nightmare: the beginning of the establishment of a Kurdish state in the broader region, including a significant portion of the Turkish territory. 

Erdogan had to gamble. He methodically attempted to approach Russia and made the Americans believe that Turkey would not hesitate to chance camp. He even made public statements to make clear that Turkey was considering to leave NATO, while at the same time he played the game of the Russian S-400 missiles against F35 fighters. These signals certainly alarmed Trump and the US deep state who realized that Erdogan wasn't bluffing.

It is also certain that Erdogan pushed Trump to accept the withdrawal of the US forces from North Syria and give the green light to Turkey to invade. This was his first goal.

Trump had limited choices. He wouldn't risk losing an extremely critical ally for Kurds. The plans for a Kurdish state had to be postponed for one more time.

Having achieved his first goal, Erdogan was now free to invade in order to achieve his second goal: sabotage the plans for a fully autonomous Kurdish state. With the Americans out of the game, the only option for the Kurds was to turn to Assad and Russia, meaning that they had to forget full autonomy.

It is highly unlikely that Erdogan will risk to confront directly the Syrian army, and probably the Russians. Besides, for now, everybody is happy. Erdogan is buying time and he can certainly achieve significant beneficiary terms in order to withdraw troops from Northern Syria. The Syrian government and the Russians will keep Syria in one piece, putting barriers to the US plans to re-draw borders.

Yet, still, it is very hard to predict what happens next in the chaotic Middle East puzzle.

One thing is certain: as the various powers are playing these ruthless games, more and more innocent people are losing their lives. And thousands abandon their homes, become refugees, in their attempt to escape the hell of war.