Perhaps
the Trump Administration is hoping history will repeat itself, but so
far Venezuelans aren’t going for it.
by
Reese Erlich
Tens of
thousands of angry people march in the streets to protest lack of
democracy. Women bang on pots to raise alarm over the economic crisis
brought on by a socialist president. The United States denounces the
leftist government and promises to help bring democracy to the
country.
Venezuela
in 2019? No, it was Chile in 1973.
Chileans
had elected a Marxist president, Salvador Allende, and the U.S.
government was seeking to oust him. Allende’s platform rejected the
anti-communist foreign policy of the United States and threatened the
profits of U.S. corporations. So, in a time-honored tactic of course,
the Nixon Administration claimed Allende was an autocrat allied with
the U.S.S.R.
With
National Security Council head Henry Kissinger as point man, the
United States squeezed Chile economically, sponsored trucker strikes,
fomented opposition demonstrations, and ultimately supported the coup
that brought General Augusto Pinochet to power. The people of Chile
would suffer under a brutal dictatorship for the next sixteen years.
Perhaps
the Trump Administration is hoping history will repeat itself, but so
far Venezuelans aren’t going for it. Elected President Nicolas
Maduro, while politically weakened by recent U.S. maneuvering, still
retains a measure of popular support. Unlike the Chilean army, much
of the Venezuelan military remains loyal to the government.
As I
reported from Caracas two years ago, Maduro survived violent attacks
by upper-class opposition leaders on his government. His supporters
hope he will do so again, despite massive economic chaos promoted by
the United States.
In
January the Trump Administration intensified a brutal economic and
political campaign to overthrow Maduro. It blocked the state owned
oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela, known as PDVSA, from receiving
payment for oil shipments to the United States. And it gave Guaidó
control of Venezuela’s U.S. bank accounts. The administration also
orchestrated denunciations of Maduro by U.S. allies in Latin America
and Europe.
Venezuela
depends on oil exports to earn hard currency. The Wall Street Journal
reported that oil production has dropped 10 percent since December.
That means the government will have a harder time importing essential
goods, like pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, and food.
While
the U.S. has sanctioned PDVSA, it has also granted waivers allowing
Chevron Corporation and two U.S. oil service providers, Halliburton
and Schlumberger, to continue operating and making profits in
Venezuela. Hmmmm. The U.S. promotion of democracy in Latin America
seems, once again, to be attached to corporate interests.
“The
Trump Administration is trying to asphyxiate Venezuela,”
Carolina Morales, a Venezuelan immigrant rights activist living in
San Francisco, told me. “The U.S. claims it favors humanitarian
aid to Venezuela, but the best aid is a functioning economy. The
sanctions hurt ordinary people.”
Trump
and the Venezuelan opposition claim that Maduro orchestrated
fraudulent presidential elections in May 2018 and has become an
autocrat. The Venezuelan constitution provides that if the presidency
is “abandoned,” the president of the National Assembly can assume
that office. On January 23, National Assembly head Guaidó swore
himself in as president, claiming that Maduro had abandoned his
office by conducting fraudulent elections.
However,
the major opposition parties had boycotted the 2018 elections because
they were badly divided. They made no claims that Maduro had
“abandoned” the presidency. The argument—a thin legal thread
created to justify a coup—arose months later.
Guaidó,
until last month, was a virtual unknown. He had never run for
national office, and was head of the National Assembly only as part
of a rotation system among the opposition parties. Guaidó’s party,
Popular Will, is self-described as a social democratic party. The
United States will certainly pressure Popular Will to adopt
neo-liberal economic policies such as tax benefits for the rich,
taking on onerous loans from international banks and privatizing
state owned companies, particularly PDVSA.
Venezuelans
have been down that path before. Neoliberal economic policies caused
a massive economic crisis in the 1990s, leading to the election of
Hugo Chávez, according to Luis Salas, a former minister of economy
under Maduro. I interviewed him during my last trip to Caracas.
“That
era only produced increased poverty and high inflation,” Salas
told me.
Venezuelans
will likely be worse off under opposition rule than under Maduro, as
admitted by Fernando CutzCruz, a former White House official who
worked on Venezuela policy.
“Things
probably will get worse for the people of Venezuela before they get
better when you actually start doing things for the greater good,”
Cutz told The New York Times.
Surely,
the opposition owes much of its support to the country's
deteriorating economy. Inflation hit a staggering 80,000 percent last
year and is expected to go even higher in 2019.
That
means workers’ wages are almost worthless. “It’s difficult
to get enough money to buy food,” admitted immigration activist
Morales.
Stringent
U.S. sanctions and fluctuating oil prices have impacted the
Venezuelan economy. But the government also made serious errors,
according to Rodulfo Perez, a former minister of education in
Maduro’s cabinet.
“We
should have invested our oil money in the domestic economy,”
Perez told me during my last trip. “Such a policy would have
strengthened the bolívar fuerte [Venezuelan currency] and reduced
the need for imports.”
Trump’s
Latin American policy is now spearheaded by John Bolton, Elliott
Abrams, and a group of neocons determined to reassert U.S. control of
Venezuela’s oil. And, as Bolton has admitted, “It will make a
big difference to the United States economically if we could have
American oil companies invest in and produce the oil capabilities in
Venezuela.”
From a
geopolitical standpoint, the neocons see overthrowing the government
in Venezuela as a first step towards doing the same in Cuba and
Nicaragua.
A U.S.
coup is by no means a done deal. “I am optimistic and hoping the
government will survive,” said activist Morales. She then
added, “I’m also worried. The U.S. could send troops to
Venezuela, which would provoke a civil war. There could be thousands
of deaths in the streets. That’s why I’m speaking up against this
coup.”
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