Forget the Missiles. Iran Just Fired the Shot That Could Actually Break the West
European Business Magazine
Part 5 - Washington’s Dilemma
The United States faces a set of choices, none of them comfortable. Forcing the Strait open militarily would require sustained naval operations against an adversary with mines, shore-based missiles, submarines and drone swarms in confined waters. The Congressional Research Service noted that while the US military has the capacity to counter Iran’s forces and restore shipping flows, such an effort would likely take days, weeks, or perhaps months depending on the form Iran’s resistance takes.
Every week of delay is a week in which energy-importing nations confront the practical reality of the yuan alternative. India, which received Iranian assurances of safe passage directly from Tehran’s ambassador, is already navigating that calculus. So are Turkey and the Gulf states now diverting oil through the East-West pipelines to Yanbu and Fujairah — pipelines that cannot absorb anything close to the full volume that previously transited Hormuz, leaving a deficit of approximately 12 million barrels per day.
The arithmetic of energy desperation is working in Iran’s favour.
Every week of delay is a week in which energy-importing nations confront the practical reality of the yuan alternative. India, which received Iranian assurances of safe passage directly from Tehran’s ambassador, is already navigating that calculus. So are Turkey and the Gulf states now diverting oil through the East-West pipelines to Yanbu and Fujairah — pipelines that cannot absorb anything close to the full volume that previously transited Hormuz, leaving a deficit of approximately 12 million barrels per day.
The arithmetic of energy desperation is working in Iran’s favour.
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