Skip to main content

Signals of an unsustainable future coming from Davos

Hyper-automation impact on unemployment rise - further shrinking of the middle class - creation of a working elite - substitution of saturated Western consumers with other emerging consumer tanks


The general conclusions from the report The Future of Jobs, of the 2016 World Economic Forum, leave little room for optimistic thoughts about the future. They reflect what already most of us have realized: that the combination of the current socio-economic model with the rapid hyper-automation of production, lead to further imbalance and inequality in favor of the very few.

As Stephen Hawking mentioned recently: “If machines produce everything we need, the outcome will depend on how things are distributed. Everyone can enjoy a life of luxurious leisure if the machine-produced wealth is shared, or most people can end up miserably poor if the machine-owners successfully lobby against wealth redistribution. So far, the trend seems to be toward the second option, with technology driving ever-increasing inequality.”

Some key points from the study:

Recent discussions about the employment impact of disruptive change have often been polarized between those who foresee limitless opportunities in newly emerging job categories and prospects that improve workers’ productivity and liberate them from routine work, and those that foresee massive labour substitution and displacement of jobs. Academics, chief executives and labour leaders hold strong and diverse views on the debate, as do policymakers. It is clear from our data that while forecasts vary by industry and region, momentous change is underway and that, ultimately, it is our actions today that will determine whether that change mainly results in massive displacement of workers or the emergence of new opportunities. Without urgent and targeted action today to manage the near-term transition and build a workforce with futureproof skills, governments will have to cope with ever-growing unemployment and inequality, and businesses with a shrinking consumer base.

Overall, our respondents seem to take a negative view regarding the upcoming employment impact of artificial intelligence, although not on a scale that would lead to widespread societal upheaval—at least up until the year 2020. By contrast, further unpacking the bundle of technological drivers of change in the mould of the Fourth Industrial Revolution yields a rather more optimistic picture regarding the job creation potential of technologies such as Big Data analytics, mobile internet, the Internet of Things and robotics. [...] Our respondents expect strong employment growth across the Architecture and Engineering and Computer and Mathematical job families, a moderate decline in Manufacturing and Production roles and a significant decline in Office and Administrative roles. [...] Conversely, 3D printing, resource-efficient sustainable production and robotics are all seen as strong drivers of employment growth in the Architecture and Engineering job family, in light of a continued and fast-growing need for skilled technicians and specialists to create and manage advanced and automated production systems. This is expected to lead to a transformation of manufacturing into a highly sophisticated sector where high-skilled engineers are in strong demand to make the industrial Internet of Things a reality.

The expected global decline in total Manufacturing and Production roles is driven by labour-substituting technologies such as additive manufacturing and 3D printing as much as by more resource-efficient sustainable product use, lower demand growth in ageing societies and threats to global supply chains due to geopolitical volatility. Some cautious optimism is warranted due to increased manufacturing demand for advanced materials and comparatively favourable expectations around robotics, pointing to the latter’s potential for labour-complementing productivity enhancement rather than pure job replacement.

The study estimates that there will be no “widespread societal upheaval—at least up until the year 2020”, due to the takeover of jobs by artificial intelligence, but is this realy a reason not to worry seriously? Think about it: 2020 is only four years from now! Say, at the end of the new US presidency.

Secondly, the study actually confirms the trend for a limited working elite between the top 1% (or less) and the bottom 99%. The 99% (or more), which will be equalized in poverty due to the gradual elimination of the middle class. This is expected to have a major impact on the socio-economic stability, even of the most advanced societies.

As already mentioned in previous article: “In the middle of the pyramid, a restructured class will serve and secure the domination of the top. Corporate executives, big journalists, scientific elites, suppression forces. It is characteristic that academic research is directed on the basis of the profits of big corporations. Funding is directed increasingly to practical applications in areas that can bring huge profits, like for example, the higher automatization of production and therefore, the profit increase through the restriction of jobs. The base of the pyramid will be consisted by the majority of workers in global level, with restricted wages, zero labor rights, and nearly zero opportunities for activities other than consumption.” [fa.ev/a-more-simple-model-in-favor]

However, by far the biggest expected drivers of employment creation are demographic and socio-economic in nature; in particular, the opportunities offered by young demographics and rising middle classes in emerging markets and the rising economic power and aspirations of women. [...] The Consumer industry is likewise reducing its Manufacturing and Production roles but anticipates at least stable overall demand for Sales and Related jobs, as rising middle classes in emerging markets, changing consumer values and, in particular, the rising economic power of women, are significant drivers of job growth in the sector.

As also mentioned: “The consumption-saturated and aging West, cannot longer contribute to the rise of profits of the global economic elite and therefore, through the economic crisis, the middle class is systematically eliminated so that its consuming power to be "aligned" with that of the majority of the huge populations of developing countries.” [fa.ev/a-more-simple-model-in-favor]

There is a huge potential of consumers due to unprecedented human population. Once wages will further rise in China-South East Asia, to be aligned with the shrinking Western wages, there will be plenty of consumers to buy more products. However, this is probably only a transition phase. It's not a matter of money, they can print as much as they want. It's a matter of power and control. Once the elites reach the point to control all the resources and the means of production, the model will change from capitalism to global feudalism.

Where it is mentioned, the artificial intelligence and machine learning driver is expected to lead to negative employment outcomes in job families such as Education and Training, Legal and Business and Financial Operations. However, it appears our respondents do not believe that these technologies will have advanced significantly enough by the year 2020 to have a more widespread impact on global employment levels. [...] current trends could lead to a net employment impact of more than 5.1 million jobs lost to disruptive labour market changes over the period 2015–2020, with a total loss of 7.1 million jobs — two thirds of which are concentrated in the Office and Administrative job family — and a total gain of 2 million jobs, in several smaller job families.

Despite that the mixture of all above is quite explosive, there is no intention by the governments and forces of the market to change the current model. On the contrary, there is a tension for further privatization of public property and businesses, and further deregulation of the market in every level. Which means that the only way for the elites to control the growing instability of this system, is by absolute suppression:

Having secured the new labor force through fully automated machines, what has left for the dominant elite now, is to take all the resources. Big corporations are grabbing huge cultivable areas especially in the developing countries in order to control food production. [...] We see a rise of private armies that act in various battlefields, like in Ukraine, exactly because in the absence of the nation-states and the national armies, someone has to protect the natural resources and the new means of production for the dominant elite. But when the arms industry will fully automate the new weapons, private armies will only serve as assistance to fully automated war machines. We already see the test fields of the weapons of future˙ the drones in Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere. It's not accidental that the arms industries demonstrate new weapons designed to be used inside urban areas for suppression of potential riots. There will be no "outside enemy" in the future. The threat for the dominant system will come from the interior, the big urban centers. Soldier-robots will protect worker-robots and resources.” [fa.ev/the-dominant-elite-ready-to-break.html]

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Israel is a European Invention & Gaza Genocide Was Made in West, w/ MEPs Clare Daly & Mick Wallace

BreakThrough News   Why does Europe support Israel so much? What does Europe gain from the occupation of Palestine and further escalation across the Middle East? How much of this is Europe following its own interests versus being subservient to US imperial designs in the region, as we’ve seen with Ukraine? Is Europe actually united on this or are there segments of the body politic that disagree with the US and Israel’s imperialist aims in Gaza? Does the EU have any awareness of its own hypocrisy? And are there consequences for those who speak out against the status quo?  

Israeli Cabinet Members Join Event Calling for Ethnic Cleansing & Resettlement of Gaza

Democracy Now!  An Israeli reporter covered a major conference in Jerusalem calling for Palestinians to be removed from Gaza in order to rebuild Jewish settlements. The conference was attended by about a third of the Israeli Cabinet, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, both of whom have long been involved in the extremist settler movement in the West Bank.    Conference-goers were greeted by a huge map of planned illegal settlements in Gaza, and the atmosphere was joyful and celebratory, in contrast to what Israeli journalist Oren Ziv with +972 Magazine says is a somber atmosphere in Israeli public life following the October 7 Hamas attack. “ This is not just a bunch of extremists; it’s the government, ” adds Palestinian physician and activist Mustafa Barghouti in Ramallah.  

Πώς ο Γκρίνμπεργκ μπορεί να θάψει το καθεστώς Μητσοτάκη

του system failure    Είναι ξεκάθαρο ότι η αναμφίβολη πρωτοκαθεδρία του καθεστώτος Μητσοτάκη οφείλεται σχεδόν αποκλειστικά σε μια άκρως επιθετική επικοινωνιακή εκστρατεία που είχε καταφέρει μέχρι στιγμής να κρύβει κάτω από το χαλί (τουλάχιστον ως ένα βαθμό) τον αυταρχισμό και τη διαφθορά του καθεστώτος, καθώς και τις καταστροφικές πολιτικές που εφαρμόζει.  Και δεν είναι πλέον μυστικό, ότι ο άνθρωπος-κλειδί πίσω από αυτή την εκστρατεία είναι ο Αμερικανός δημοσιοσχετίστας, Σταν Γκρίνμπεργκ .    Όμως καθώς το καθεστώς επαναπαύθηκε στις δάφνες της νίκης των τελευταίων βουλευτικών εκλογών, τα μεγάλα προβλήματα συνέχισαν να συσσωρεύονται και φάνηκε ότι το καθεστώς είτε δεν ήθελε, είτε δεν μπόρεσε να τα αντιμετωπίσει. Έτσι, είδαμε σε σύντομο χρονικό διάστημα να έρχονται τα πρώτα σημαντικά πλήγματα στην πρωτοκαθεδρία του, μέσα από τα αποτελέσματα των δημοτικών και περιφερειακών εκλογών. Παρόλα αυτά, η αλαζονεία των καθεστωτικών στελεχών παρέμεινε αμετάβλητη, καθώς θεώρησαν ότι η τραγωδία των Τ

Ο πραγματικός λόγος που το καθεστώς Μητσοτάκη επιθυμεί διακαώς την ίδρυση ιδιωτικών πανεπιστημίων παραβιάζοντας το σύνταγμα

 του system failure   Όπως έχουμε ήδη αναφέρει σε προηγούμενο άρθρο , μπορούμε να δούμε τη σημερινή κατάσταση στην άκρως νεοφιλελεύθερη Αμερική, για να καταλάβουμε το βαθμό αποτυχίας του ιδιωτικού μοντέλου στα πανεπιστήμια. Ένα από τα μεγαλύτερα προβλήματα που αντιμετωπίζει σήμερα η Αμερικανική νεολαία είναι τα φοιτητικά χρέη. Πολλοί μάλιστα μιλούν για την επόμενη μεγάλη φούσκα που είναι έτοιμη να σκάσει και που μπορεί να αποδειχθεί πολύ χειρότερη από τη φούσκα των στεγαστικών δανείων που συμπαρέσυρε την παγκόσμια οικονομία το 2008.  Η επιβολή του μοντέλου της ελεύθερης αγοράς στην ανώτατη εκπαίδευση, σε συνδυασμό με ορισμένες ραγδαίες τεχνολογικές εξελίξεις στην αγορά εργασίας, δημιούργησε μια ολόκληρη γενιά ανέργων με πανεπιστημιακού επιπέδου γνώσεις, οι οποίοι δυσκολεύονται όλο και πιο πολύ να βρουν δουλειά ανάλογη των προσόντων και δεξιοτήτων τους. Στην Αμερική τους αποκαλούν πλέον 'hyper-educated poor'. Το όλο και πιο σαθρό αυτό σύστημα βασίζεται αποκλειστικά στο κυνήγι το

Omali Yeshitela, Facing 15-Years for “Pro-Russian Propaganda”

Glenn Greenwald 

Israel’s Looming Invasion of Rafah is the “Worst-Case Scenario”

Democracy Now!   The United States, the European Union and countries around the world are warning Israel against a ground invasion of Rafah in southern Gaza. As Palestinian human rights attorney Noura Erakat says: “ This is disproportionate, excessive force that is meant to terrorize a population, ” and “ Israel must stop its genocidal campaign now. ” Erakat also responds to news that one of President Biden’s top foreign policy aides has admitted the administration has made “missteps” in the Middle East, and discusses calls to stop arms transfers under international law to prevent war crimes.

'Clearly a victory for Russia' as ICJ dismisses bulk of Ukraine's terror case against Russia

FRANCE 24 English   The United Nations' top court on Wednesday mostly rejected Ukraine's claims that Russia was financing "terrorism" in eastern Ukraine, saying only that Moscow had failed to investigate alleged breaches. Fernande Van Tets, FRANCE 24’s correspondent in the Netherlands, reports from The Hague on why this ruling is such a victory for Russia.

The truth about Alexei Navalny

Glenn Greenwald / Dangerous Ideas with Lee Camp / The Hill /  

Why Israel’s War Is Genocide — and Why Biden Is Culpable

Israel has made no secret of it: it has embarked on a genocidal plan to “create conditions where life in Gaza becomes unsustainable.” And Joe Biden is its accomplice.   by Seth Ackerman   Part 3 - “Stay and Starve, or Leave” The reason the carnage is as great as it is is that Israel is trying to kill or expel as much of the Palestinian population of Gaza as possible. Its direct attacks on civilians are part of a larger plan: to create “ conditions where life in Gaza becomes unsustainable, ” as Maj.-Gen. Giora Eiland, an adviser to Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant, put it. “ Israel needs to create a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, compelling tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands to seek refuge in Egypt or the Gulf, ” the adviser wrote in October. In the policy jargon of the Israeli government, this is referred to as “ voluntary emigration. ” It will be presented as a choice: in Eiland’s words, “ The people should be told that they have two choices: to stay and to starve, or

Zionazis exterminate Palestinians in Rafah

failed evolution    Zionazis are committing the biggest crime of 21st century with the help and tolerance of their Western allies. They are all complicit. We will never forgive, never forget. This is the end of the corrupt West. A deaf Gazan who witnessed the Rafah massacre last night shares his horrific testimony of what took place yesterday. pic.twitter.com/Hf3hT89x1U — TIMES OF GAZA (@Timesofgaza) February 12, 2024 The Super Bowl Massacre: While Americans were distracted and the Middle East was asleep, US-UK-EU-armed Israel launched an assault on the city of Rafah in Gaza where 1.9 million displaced and starving Palestinians are crammed into. More than 63 Palestinians were killed.… pic.twitter.com/jG3c8kryyT — Going Underground (@GUnderground_TV) February 12, 2024 At least 100 murdered & 300 injured in indiscriminate bombing of Rafah last night. We can see from the images that many murdered and injured are children. Netanyahu is a monster. Supported by Biden, Sunak &a