by Mike
Whitney
The
UN-sponsored Syrian peace talks, which began on Friday in Geneva,
will be boycotted by the main Syrian opposition group which has
insisted that Russia stop bombing its positions while negotiations
are conducted. To appreciate how ridiculous these demands are, one
would have to imagine a similar scenario taking place in the United
States. Let’s say, for example, that Ammon Bundy, the crackpot
leader of the armed militia that seized the federal wildlife refuge
in eastern Oregon, demanded that the FBI and all other federal agents
vamoose while the UN convened negotiations between his
representatives and the Obama administration for the establishment of
a transitional government that would remove Obama from power after 18
months while rewriting the constitution so it better reflected the
far-right political and religious convictions of Bundy and his gaggle
of ne’er-do-well followers.
Does that
seem like a reasonable proposition to you?
This is the
context in which the current “talks” are being held. Is it any
wonder why Moscow doesn’t take this charade seriously? It’s a
joke.
In what
other country are armed militias allowed to occupy cities, kill
civilians, destroy critical infrastructure, create total mayhem and
threaten to overthrow the elected government?
None. And
yet, the Obama team thinks this is a perfectly acceptable way for
citizens and even non citizens (most of the ‘rebels’ are foreign
nationals or jihadis) to act, provided their political objectives
coincide with those of Washington. Which they do. From the very
beginning, Washington’s sole aim has been to topple Syrian
President Bashar al Assad so the oil fields and pipeline corridors
could be secured by the western oil giants and protected by new US
military bases sprinkled across the country. This has been the basic
gameplan since Day 1, and this is why Obama and Co are so eager to
slow the Russian-led offensive by any means possible even if it means
engaging in meaningless negotiations that have no other purpose than
to implement a ceasefire so these same US-backed terrorists can
regroup and fight at some future date when they are better prepared.
Russian
President Vladimir Putin sees through this ruse but–all the
same–he’s dispatched diplomats to Geneva to play along and
go-through-the-motions. But will he cave in and agree to a ceasefire
so Obama’s “rebels” can live to fight another day? Don’t bet
on it.
What
Americans are not reading in the western media is that, after months
of slow but steady progress, the Russian-led coalition (Syrian Arab
Army, Iranian Quds Forces, and Hezbollah) has broken through the
sluicegate and is advancing on all fronts while enemy positions are
crumbling. Key cities and towns in Latakia province along the Turkish
border that used to be jihadi strongholds have buckled under Russia’s
relentless bombing raids and been liberated by the Syrian Army.
Aleppo, Syria’s biggest city to the north, has been surrounded by
loyalist forces that have cut off supplylines to Turkey leaving
fighters from Salafi groups like Ahrar al Sham, Jabhat al Nusra,
Jaish al Islam, ISIS and the other al Qaida-linked groups to either
surrender or hunker down while they await the final desperate
confrontation. The momentum has shifted in favor of Assad’s forces
which now clearly have the upper hand. What the western media
characterizes as a “quagmire” has all the makings of a stunning
victory for the Russian-led coalition that is gradually
reestablishing security across Syria while sending the invaders
running for cover. This is from Reuters:
|
“Three
months into his military intervention in Syria, Russian President
Vladimir Putin has achieved his central goal of stabilizing the
Assad government and, with the costs relatively low, could sustain
military operations at this level for years, U.S. officials and
military analysts say.
That
assessment comes despite public assertions by President Barack
Obama and top aides that Putin has embarked on an ill-conceived
mission in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that it
will struggle to afford and that will likely fail…
since
its campaign began on Sept. 30, Russia has suffered minimal
casualties and, despite domestic fiscal woes, is handily covering
the operation’s cost, which analysts estimate at $1-2 billion a
year. The war is being funded from Russia’s regular annual
defense budget of about $54 billion, a U.S. intelligence official
said…
QUAGMIRE?
“An
attempt by Russia and Iran to prop up Assad and try to pacify the
population is just going to get them stuck in a quagmire and it
won’t work,” (President) Obama said on Oct. 2. On Dec. 1, he
raised the prospect of Russia becoming “bogged down in an
inconclusive and paralyzing civil conflict.”
The
senior administration official denied any contradiction between
Obama’s statements and private assessments that Russia’s
campaign has been relatively effective so far.
“I
think the president’s point has been…it’s not going to
succeed in the long run,” the official said. The Russians “have
become bound up in a civil war in a way that’s going to be
extremely difficult to extricate themselves from.”….
Vasily
Kashin, a Moscow-based analyst, said the war is not financially
stressing Russia.
“All
the available data shows us that the current level of military
effort is completely insignificant for the Russian economy and
Russian budget,” said Kashin, of the Center for Analyses of
Strategies and Technologies. “It can be carried on at the same
level year after year after year,” he said.”
(U.S. sees bearable costs, key
goals met for Russia in Syria so far, Reuters)
|
Americans
are so conditioned to believe that every military intervention ends
in a quagmire that they are surprised when the outcome is different.
That’s understandable given the fact that the so called “best
military on earth” has been unable to defeat a ragtag collection of
goat-herding fundamentalists for more than 15 years. (Afghanistan) No
wonder Americans expect failure. The fact is, however, that Putin has
no intention of getting “bogged down” in Syria for a decade or
two.. What he plans to do is to defeat the enemy and move on. Recent
reports from the frontlines suggest that that is precisely what he is
doing. This is from a post at Sic Semper Tyrannis:
|
“The Fall of Salma”
Things had started to move early
last week, when the SAA (Syrian Arab Army), NDF (National Defense
Force) and local militias moved into Salma, the rebel stronghold
that was key to defensive positions South of the M4 highway
linking Latakia to Idlib. After weeks of preparations and
softening up defences, R+6 finally moved in and there was not much
the various rebel groups could have done at that point to stop or
reverse this trend…
… Once the strategic breaking
point is reached though, the side having gained the upper hand
usually pushes through, which results in the opponent’s posture
crumbling under the pressure. This is what happened with Salma, a
former mountain resort North-East of Latakia… When R+6 went for
their final assault, Salma had already become untenable. Its loss
meant that the whole defensive line South of the M4 highway was
compromised and both SAA advances and “tactical” retreat by
the rebels made for a very quick correction of the frontline in
the area…
The inroads made by the SAA…
again proved decisive against a rebel frontline that had already
been destabilized by the loss of Salma and the prospect of being
cut off from their LOCs with Jisr al-Shughur.” (Rebel Defences
Crumbling In Latakia Province, Sic Semper Tyrannis)
|
Get the
picture? The jihadi misfits are getting the holy hell beat out of
them by a superior army that is recapturing critical cities and
strategic territory along the Turkish border and across the southern
and eastern parts of the country. As a result, Assad will not be
removed from office nor will the country become a “Salafi-jihadi
principality” governed by Islamic freaks who rule through terror.
That’s not
to say that there aren’t plenty of potential pitfalls ahead. There
are, in fact there’s a situation developing right now that could
explode into a regional conflict involving Turkey, NATO, the US and
Russia. You see, Russia plans to use its Kurdish allies in the YPG to
seize a stretch of land along the Syrian side of the Turkish border
to reestablish Syria’s territorial sovereignty and to stop the flow
of terrorists from Turkey into Syria. Turkish President Erdogan has
promised that if the YPG pursues that course, Turkey will invade, in
which case, Putin will come to the defense of the Kurds. There’s no
telling how this powderkeg situation will play out, but there’s no
doubt that the next few weeks are going to be extremely tense as the
main players rattle sabers and jockey for position while edging
closer to a full-blown conflagration. Will cooler heads prevail?
I can’t
answer that, but I can tell you that Washington has already backed
off its “Assad must go” campaign and moved on to Plan B, which is
seizing territory and establishing bases in Northeastern Syria that
the US plans to occupy for as long as they can. Check it out from
South Front website:
|
“As SouthFront: Analysis and
Intelligence predicted month ago the NATO allies are urgently
trying to implement a new plan to hold control at least of the
northern oil corridor from Iraq and try to take advantage of this
opportunity to involve Russia in a long expensive war. This plan
includes an occupation of the crucial infrastructure including
oilfields by the NATO contingent and establishing of
anti-government, meaning anti-Russian and anti-Iranian, forces in
parts of divided Syria.
Implementing of this plan could
easily lead to a global war launched by military escalation over
the Syrian crisis. The stakes of the global geopolitical standoff
have been raised again.” (Escalation in Syria, South Front)
|
So even
though Washington has scrapped its plan to topple Assad
(temporarily), it has deepened its commitment to creating Sunnistan,
a new state comprised of eastern Syria and western Iraq controlled by
US-clients who will allow western oil giants to connect the pipeline
grid from Qatar to Turkey in order to replace Russia as the EU’s
primary supplier of natural gas. It’s all part of the imperial
strategy to “pivot” to Asia by controlling vital resources and
making sure they remain denominated in US dollars. It’s an
ambitious plan for global rule that is now being openly challenged by
Russia, the emerging power that threatens to derail the lethal US
juggernaut and put an end to the malign unipolar world order.
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