1. The nature of war has changed dramatically since the Iraq war, due to technological developments. A ground invasion, especially against Iran, would be catastrophic for the US empire with unpredictable consequences, even if the regime-change mission successfully completed.
2. The Iran allies in the region are still active, despite their losses. This is connected with the first reason in a way because armed groups dispersed in the Middle-East and affiliated with Iran, can lead to an asymmetric, out-of-control conflict to the point where US forces may suddenly find themselves trapped in a wider deadly warzone with no exit. The new, relatively cheap technology of drones and small/middle range missiles, is easily accessible to these groups. The Ansar Allah group in Yemen, already demonstrated their ability to sabotage US military operations.
3. Iran is not Iraq. Not only due to its size and the fact that we live now in a very different period, but also because Iran is strategically important to both Russia and China. Because of its size and location, Iran is the last big barrier against the US imperial aggression towards Russia and China. Therefore, Russia and China already support Iran in various ways and it's quite certain that they will seek to get involved directly or indirectly in an armed conflict to support the country further.
4. Perhaps the most important reason is that a war with Iran will significantly boost de-dollarization to the point that will give the final blow to Dollar's global hegemony, which is the most critical element of the US imperial apparatus. Updated info shows that Iran is trying to exploit the complete control of Hormuz Strait to accelerate the de-dollarization process.
5. The Iraq war brought some long-term serious consequences (still detectable today), to the US global hegemony and actually marked the beginning of the fall of the US empire. Even a limited war with Iran, will mark its final days.
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