The real reason Trump hesitates to strike Iran

Recent statements by the Iranian leadership concerning the ability of Iran to hit US military bases, should not be taken lightly. It is not just the missile capability and - in some cases - even superiority of Iran in the broader region. That alone, would not be enough for Washington to take Tehran's threats seriously.

It has to do also with a strategic move by Iran in the geopolitical battlefield that changes the balance decisively in the war field too. As Pakistan Today reported back in July 2025:

In two recent wars that nearly tipped the world into a full-scale global conflict— one between Pakistan and India, and the other between Iran and Israel— a new determinant of military dominance emerged. In both cases, countries under pressure, Pakistan and Iran, not only stood their ground but struck deep into enemy territory with astonishing precision and devastating impact.

... in a 12-day war with Israel, Iran destroyed numerous high-end Israeli military, economic, and strategic assets, ultimately forcing Israel to beg for a ceasefire. The common denominator in these unlikely victories? Both nations abandoned reliance on the US-controlled GPS and instead used China’s BeiDou satellite navigation system.

This was not merely a technical switch, but a strategic shift that defined the outcome of both conflicts. Had they used the US GPS, which Washington has the power to degrade or deny at will, these nations would have stood little chance of success.

There is growing speculation that there was also a calculated downgrading of the GPS system by the USA. for India and Israel, to teach a geopolitical lesson to India— whose regional ambitions and anti-US posturing were becoming problematic— and to Israel, whose growing influence over US politics and dominance in the Middle East were starting to challenge US primacy. In both wars, the side relying on BeiDou emerged victorious. This silent yet transformative transition from American to Chinese satellite guidance marks a game-changing shift in global warfare and digital sovereignty.

Without access to BeiDou, Iran’s ability to hit critical Israeli targets with such devastating effect would have been close to impossible. Had Iran relied on US GPS, it would have been vulnerable to jamming, signal scrambling, and location degradation— methods longused by the Pentagon to retain navigational supremacy in conflicts from Iraq to Kosovo.

But BeiDou changed that equation. It gave Iran independence. It gave Iran accuracy. And it gave Iran the capacity to strike in ways that stunned Israeli defences and shook the strategic confidence of its Western allies.

Perhaps this strategic move by Tehran, shows more clearly why Israel has recently used Russia as an intermediary to pass messages to Iran aimed at preventing a direct confrontation. And why Trump hesitates to take military action against Iran.

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