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A social disaster scenery for neoliberal Europe

Signs of growing inequality between classes and countries

Latest European Commission report key findings:

"According to Eurostat data, poverty and social exclusion continued to increase in 2011 and 2012, reflecting the deterioration of labour market conditions, as long-term unemployment increased and an increasing share of jobs do not ensure a living wage (e.g. involuntary part-time). Poverty and social exclusion are estimated to have increased further in a few countries in 2013 (according to Euromod estimates available for 10 countries), especially in countries where it was already high."

Poverty

"Between 2011 and 2012, the population at risk of poverty or social exclusion increased in one third of EU-Member States, amongst them in countries with low levels of poverty and social exclusion such as the United Kingdom, Luxembourg and Austria.”

"The latest survey data indicated that poverty would continue to increase in 2012, particularly in a few countries where economic and labour market conditions had continued to deteriorate. In the EU-28, 24.8 % of Europeans were affected by the risk of poverty or social exclusion in 2012, an increase of 0.5 pps since 2011. This corresponds to 124 million people (123 million in the EU-27)."

"Between 2011 and 2012, the share of the population at risk of poverty or social exclusion increased in a third of the EU’s Member States: EL, CY, IE, IT, RO, HU, MT and PT. It dropped in HR, BG, BE and ES, but this decrease is partly explained by a fall in the poverty threshold, reflecting lower overall living standards in these countries. Rates also increased in countries with relatively low levels of poverty and social exclusion, such as the UK, LU and AT. In the Baltic States, especially LV, the situation remained stable or even improved due to economic recovery in recent years, following a profound shock just after the crisis. Nevertheless, poverty and social exclusion remain high in these Member States."

"The average at-risk-of-poverty rate (relative income poverty) remained stable at EU level between 2011 and 2012, but this hid diverging national developments, with a particularly sharp increase in Greece. However, changes in the rate must be considered alongside changes in the poverty threshold, which shifts in line with total income. The combination of labour market deterioration and the weakening stabilising effect of social protection over time may result in marked declines of household disposable incomes and thereby drops in the poverty threshold (defined as 60 % of median equivalised income). In such cases, changes in the (relative) risk-of-poverty rate do not necessarily reflect changes in the actual income situation of households. The anchored poverty rate, using a threshold fixed at 2008 value (updated by inflation) over time, helps to disentangle the two effects."

"From 2010, as a consequence of sustained hardship, severe material deprivation started to increase significantly across Europe (down by 0.1 pp between 2008 and 2010, but up by 1.1 pp between 2010 and 2012), rising especially sharply in EL, CY, IE, IT, HU, MT, ES and the UK."

"Between 2011 and 2013, nowcast estimates that the biggest changes in poverty levels in most Member States will continue to affect the elderly."

Inequality

"The prolonged economic downturn has seen households’ financial distress intensify in recent months, due to the need to draw on savings or borrow in order to maintain current standards of living. Households in the lowest income quartile experienced the greatest difficulty in covering their current expenditure."

"The incidence of financial distress among all households worsened over 2013 in several Member States and remains higher than in 2007 in most of them, ranging from less than 5% in Germany and Sweden to more than 25% in many Southern Member States. The increase in financial distress among people in the lowest income quartile households, which has accelerated since 2007 in all Member States soared in 2013 in France and Spain, while nearly halved in Bulgaria, Croatia and Ireland. The share of the population in the lowest income quartile households that suffers from financial difficulties ranges from less than 10% in Germany and Luxembourg to more than 40% in Italy, Romania, Slovakia and Spain."

Unemployment

"The EU’s job finding rate remained low over the past year compared with the pre-crisis period. In the second semester of 2012, it dropped below 12 % from an average of over 20 % five years ago."

"Unemployment has stabilised since mid-2013, but figures for January 2014 show that it is still at record high levels, with around 26 million people (10.8 % of the economically active population) in the EU looking for work. In several Member States, unemployment remains close to the historically-high levels first seen in the current crisis."

"In 2013, unemployment affected around 10% of young people aged 15-24 in the EU, up from 8% observed in 2008. However, also people aged 25-29 who often enter the labour market after graduation, require policy attention, because they suffer from a similar lack of job opportunities (with the unemployment ratio of 10% as well)."

Social benefits

"However, three years into the crisis (2012 in most countries), social expenditure grew well below its trend and went on adjusting downwards despite a worsening of the output gap, contrary to what happened in past instances of declining and negative output gap."

"In 2011, social protection expenditure declined in real terms, mainly driven by the reduction in expenditure on unemployment benefits and sickness and disability."

"Changes to the tax and benefits systems over the period 2008-13 have sometimes led to significant reductions in the level of real household incomes, potentially putting a heavy strain on the living standards of low income households."

The No 1 “guinea pig” of neoliberal dictatorship

The at-risk-of-poverty rate remained stable on average at EU level between 2011 and 2012, hiding diverging national developments at national level. It increased especially noticeably in Greece and is estimated to increase further between 2011 and 2013 in this country and a few others."

"The unemployment rate ranges from around 10% or less in countries little affected by labour market deterioration, i.e. Austria, Germany and the Netherlands, to more than half of the young active in the labour market being unemployed in Greece and Spain – nearly a triple compared to 2008."

"Greece has seen a strong increase in the risk of poverty (by 1.7 pps since 2011), accompanied by a strong drop in the risk-of-poverty threshold (by 14.3 % since 2011). If the poverty threshold had remained at the 2008 level (updated by inflation), the risk of poverty in Greece would have increased by 15.7 pps between 2008 and 2012."

"Working-age adults have been strongly hit in Greece, reflecting the deterioration in labour market conditions. As many working-age adults live in households with children, child poverty has also been impacted."

"In Greece, working-age adults are expected to be the group most exposed to poverty increases between 2011 and 2013."

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