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Στα 135 τρισ. το χρέος των G20: Το ΔΝΤ προβλέπει την καταστροφή

Το ενδιαφέρον στη χώρας μας για την ετήσια σύνοδο του ΔΝΤ και τις ανακοινώσεις αναλύσεων που γίνονται παράλληλα, είναι λογικό να στρέφεται γύρω από τα θέματα που μας ενδιαφέρουν άμεσα, αλλά αυτή τη φορά το Ταμείο προχωρά σε ορισμένες ανησυχητικές επισημάνσεις για την παγκόσμια οικονομία.

Σε έκθεσή του για τη διεθνή χρηματοπιστωτική σταθερότητα, ο διεθνής οργανισμός επισημαίνει ότι το σύνολο του χρέους (ιδιωτικό και κρατικό) των 20 πλέον ανεπτυγμένων χωρών έχει ξεπεράσει τα 135 τρισεκατομμύρια δολάρια και γίνεται όλο και πιο δύσκολο να εξυπηρετηθεί.

Για να απαντήσουν στην κρίση του 2008, οι μεγάλες κεντρικές τράπεζες του πλανήτη κράτησαν τα επιτόκια χαμηλά και ταυτόχρονα τροφοδότησαν τις οικονομίες με ρευστότητα, με το λεγόμενο “τύπωμα χρήματος”.

Το αποτέλεσμα είναι ότι οι οικονομίες ανέκαμψαν, αλλά λόγω των χαμηλών επιτοκίων ο παγκόσμιος δανεισμός αυξήθηκε και έχει φτάσει στα επίπεδα που προκαλούν ανησυχία στους οικονομολόγους του ΔΝΤ, ενώ την ίδια στιγμή η άφθονη ρευστότητα διοχετεύεται σε αγορές “χαρτιών” (μετοχές, ομόλογα) οι τιμές των οποίων έχουν ανέβει παντού δημιουργώντας μια νέα φούσκα.

Το Ταμείο επισημαίνει ότι παρόλο που η οικονομική δραστηριότητα διεθνώς βελτιώνεται, η κατάσταση μπορεί να αντιστραφεί και παρουσιάζει ένα σενάριο “καταστροφής”, σύμφωνα με το οποίο μετά το 2020 οι συνθήκες αντιστρέφονται, με τα επιτόκια να αυξάνονται και να δημιουργούν προβλήματα σε όσους χρωστάνε, αφού θα δυσκολεύονται να εξυπηρετήσουν τα χρέη τους.

Στο σενάριο αυτό το ΔΝΤ “βλέπει” μια νέα κρίση η ένταση της οποίας θα αντιστοιχεί στο ⅓ εκείνης που ζήσαμε το 2008, με τις αγορές μετοχών να πέφτουν κατά 15% τις τιμές ακινήτων κατά 7% και την παραγωγή παγκοσμίως θα μειωθεί κατά 1,7 % κατά μέσο όρο.

Το πρόβλημα είναι ότι υπάρχει διεθνώς ένας εφησυχασμός καθώς η κρίση του 2008 φαίνεται πλέον μακρινό παρελθόν, ιδιαίτερα καθώς οι χρηματιστηριακοί δείκτες σπάνε τα ρεκόρ το ένα μετά το άλλο και το κόστος χρήματος είναι ακόμα χαμηλό.

Ήδη όμως η κεντρική τράπεζα των ΗΠΑ ετοιμάζεται για νέα αύξηση των επιτοκίων στα τέλη του χρόνου, ενώ πυκνώνουν και οι συζητήσεις στην Ευρώπη για το πότε θα σταματήσει το “τύπωμα χρήματος” με τη λεγόμενη ποσοτική χαλάρωση.

Επομένως, ουδείς μπορεί να γνωρίζει με ασφάλεια τι τριγμούς θα προκαλέσει η σταδιακή επιστροφή των κεντρικών τραπεζών στην κανονικότητα, καθώς δηλαδή θα αρχίσουν να ανεβάζουν το κόστος χρήματος και να “μαζεύουν” τη ρευστότητα που έχουν διαθέσει στην αγορά.

Υπολογίζεται για παράδειγμα ότι περίπου οι μισές μεγάλες τράπεζες παγκοσμίως έχουν δείκτη απόδοσης κεφαλαίων κάτω από 8%, που το ΔΝΤ θεωρεί όριο ασφαλείας, ενώ τράπεζες που έχουν δάνεια αξίας 17 τρισ. θα εμφανίσουν μη διατηρήσιμες αποδόσεις.

Το ερώτημα, λοιπόν, είναι ποιοι θα αντέξουν και ποιοι θα βρεθούν εκτεθειμένοι όταν οι συνθήκες θα δυσκολέψουν και οι φούσκες θα αρχίσουν να ξεφουσκώνουν.

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