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US meddling in Brazilian elections - preparing for possible military intervention

The United States is interfering in the Brazilian presidential elections, pressuring the Brazilian electorate into voting for right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of disgraced former president, Jair Bolsonaro. If that does not work and President Lula da Silva secures a fourth term in office, the groundwork is already being laid for a potential military intervention. From sanctions and economic warfare, to coaching influencers and journalists on how best to attack the left-wing government, the Trump administration is doing everything it can to overthrow Lula. Meanwhile, the State Department’s recent decision to designate Brazilian gangs as “foreign terrorist organizations” just as it did with Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua, signals a willingness to intervene militarily. Brazil is Trump’s next target, and builds upon recent U.S. and Israeli interference in May’s Colombian elections, where pro-Trump candidate Abelardo de la Espriella won a razor-thin victory. MintPress examines the Trump administration’s attempts to undermine Brazilian democracy and install another Bolsonaro back into power. 

by Alan MacLeod

Part 1 - A thumb on the scale

Brazil’s October elections are rapidly approaching, and while thirteen people are standing for president, two principal candidates have already emerged: current left-of-center president Lula da Silva, and far-right challenger, Flavio Bolsonaro. Flavio is the son of disgraced former president, Jair (sentenced to 27 years in prison for leading a January 6th-inspired coup attempt), and the brother of Eduardo (convicted in absentia for lobbying the United States to intervene in his father’s trial). 

It is obvious which candidate Washington prefers. The Bolsonaro’s are politically, ideologically, and personally very close to the MAGA movement, and Flavio has already promised that, if elected, his country will become one of the U.S.’ closest allies.

Lula currently holds a double-digit lead on Bolsonaro (40% to 28%, with no other candidate holding more than 10% of the public’s voting intentions). But Brazilian politics can change very quickly; in 2018, Lula held a 20-point lead over Jair Bolsonaro when the Brazilian Supreme Court blocked him from running. He was imprisoned on bogus charges in a case orchestrated by the U.S. government, leaving the path clear for Bolsonaro’s victory. 

Lula has sounded the alarm that Brazilian democracy is once again under threat from Washington. “As far as I’m concerned, [Trump] can continue liking Bolsonaro, the father, the son, the grandson… There is no problem with that. It’s his problem. There’s no accounting for taste,” he said. “Now, don’t meddle in the Brazilian elections, because the Brazilian elections are a Brazilian problem, just as American elections are their business, not mine,” he added: “All I want is the same respect for Brazil that I have for the United States. That’s it.”

Washington, however, has other ideas. On May 26, Flavio Bolsonaro traveled to Washington to meet with Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to sell them on the concept of military intervention in Brazil. Two days later, the U.S. State Department designated two Brazilian gangs, Comando Vermelho and Primeiro Comando da Capital, as “Specially Designated Global Terrorists” and “Foreign Terrorist Organizations, a decision that Brian Mier, an American journalist who moved to Brazil in 1991 and is now Brazil correspondent for TeleSur English, described as “a preemptive move to possibly invade if Lula wins reelection.” 

In 2025, the State Department did the same with Venezuelan gang, Tren de Aragua. Just months later, the U.S. carried out an operation to kidnap President Nicolás Maduro, decapitating the Venezuelan government. 

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