Skip to main content

Preparing the invasion of Iran: the US empire regroups its proxies in Afghanistan

globinfo freexchange

On the occasion of the recent attack against two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, we estimated that the US imperialists will follow a certain scenario to achieve primary goal, which is to fully control the Strait of Hormuz. The goal could be achieved through a strategically and geographically restricted, fast-track invasion of Iran.

A certain part of the operation could include some US forces and proxies inside Afghanistan.

As we wrote, already since 2017 the US announced that it will increase the number of US troops in Afghanistan, and one reason probably has to do with Iran. A significant number of US troops on the Iranian eastern border would be very useful. It will be used to keep the Iranian forces busy and gradually weaken the Iranian operational capabilities in an extended attrition war. This will permit the US to gradually secure and establish their presence in the Strait of Hormuz.

This attrition war could be held - and probably would be more effective - through proxy forces, or mercenaries of private armies, or a combination of them in the front line together with the US forces in the background.

It seems that there are certain moves by the US that justify the probability of this scenario. As PressTV reported: [important parts highlighted]

The Taliban militant group said in a statement on Friday that US soldiers “saved” Daesh members as well as their local leaders by helicopters from a siege they had been trapped in the eastern Afghan province of Kunar. “The US troops saved them from the siege by helicopters,” the statement said, adding that the Taliban had been launching an anti-Daesh operation for one week in Kunar and had surrounded the terrorist outfit’s important individuals.

A large number of Daesh terrorists were rescued by choppers while fleeing a battlefield with Taliban last year in the northern province of Jawzjan.

The Economic Times estimated in a recent report that around 10,000 members of the Takfiri terrorist group were present in Afghanistan and the number was growing on Washington’s watch.

In recent years, Daesh has established a foothold in eastern and northern Afghanistan. The terrorist group has mostly been populating Nangarhar, from where it has carried out high-profile brutal attacks at major population centers across the country.

Last February, three months after the group's defeat was announced in Iraq and Syria, the Associated Press reported that the US military was pulling its forces from a base in Iraq and shifting them to Afghanistan.

The report flew in the face of US President Donald Trump's campaign promises to end Washington's Afghanistan intervention.


As geopolitical analyst, Eric Draitser, wrote in 2015, "Iran understands that ISIS is, in effect, an arm of the power projection of its regional rivals Turkey and Saudi Arabia, both of whom have been primary instigators of the war in Syria and the attempt to break the alliance of Iran-Iraq-Syria-Hezbollah. Therefore, from the Iranian perspective, the Taliban’s war against ISIS in Afghanistan is essentially a new theater in the larger war against ISIS and its backers."

Yet today, the relations between Turkey and US are in their worst position. The US empire sees another strategically important ally making moves of independence. Therefore, the US imperialists are facing another uncertain situation in the already unstable broader region on western Iranian borders. Reinforcing their troops and proxies in Afghanistan is a good sign that they want to use them against Iran as part of an invasion plan.

Although the fully Westernized Afghan leadership is expected to permit US operations against Iran, the US think-tank network already sends the appropriate messages-warnings to Kabul in order to prevent further approach with Tehran. An example can be found in a recent article on The Diplomat: [most important parts highlighted red]

In recent years, the Afghan transit trade has shifted to Iran’s port city of Bandar e Abbas as an alternative transit route. Estimates show that the share of Afghanistan’s transit trade conducted via Pakistan, which stood at 60 percent in 2008-09, has dropped to less than 30 percent in 2016 while Afghan trade routed through Iran grew from roughly 20 percent to 40 percent in the same time frame. In an unprecedented move, Afghanistan is even working to establish its own shipping line to carry goods via Iran. While Afghanistan received waivers to buy oil from Iran amid the fresh sanctions imposed by the United States, its underlying transit trade endeavors stand to be be hurt severely as no exemptions can help should things get worse.

Future development plans risk being detailed as well. Two competing ports, Gwadar in Pakistan developed by China and Chabahar jointly developed by India and Iran, are located at close proximity to the Strait of Hormuz. While Chabahar serves as a gateway for India to reach Afghanistan and Central Asia, it will also provide a transit route and exclusive transit and trade benefits to Afghanistan as a partner once fully operational. Progress on the port, however, has been severely affected by the escalated U.S.-Iran tension since the project’s onset. In the meantime, continued economic downfall as a result of sanctions has constrained Iran’s capacity to contribute toward the development of port as planned. Therefore, any possible face-off would further dent the progress on Chabahar.

Afghanistan needs to learn an important lesson from the underlying situation. The shift in transit trade towards Iran’s Bandar e Abbas was the result of poor facilitation, overbearing security measures, an inefficient risk management system, and extortionate fees by Pakistani authorities. This trend further increased after relations between Iran and the United States improved in 2015. In the meantime, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani inherited regional transport corridor projects, namely Chabahar and Lapis Lazuli. While the complete operationalization of both projects has a long way to go, the Afghan president is presenting the shift in trade as a major achievement, implying that Afghanistan is no longer dependent on Pakistan for transit as part of his populist agenda.

But the recent uptick in tensions shows there are also dangers to being overly reliant on Iran for Afghanistan’s transit trade. Instead, it’s time to try again to tackle the issues between Kabul and Islamabad. The Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA) was signed in 2010 and meant to be revised in five years if needed and agreed by both parties. Key clauses in APTTA were unfair and harsh, making transit trade for Afghanistan challenging. It is important to renegotiate APTTA and ensure a smooth trade and transit route for Afghanistan to curtail any possible shocks to transit trade via Iran.

This is only a small sample of the Iran-case complexity, showing that the path towards the invasion of Iran will not be a piece of cake.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

"Kidnapped in Int'l Waters": Israel Intercepts Gaza-Bound Aid Ship, Detains Greta Thunberg & Others

Democracy Now!   Eleven peace activists and one journalist on board the Gaza Freedom Flotilla ship, the "Madleen," were detained by Israeli soldiers as their ship carrying vital humanitarian aid for starving Palestinians approached Gaza.    The ship was intercepted by Israeli forces in the middle of the night in international waters. Its supplies were seized and communications jammed. The unarmed activists will likely be transported to Israeli detention or "immediately deported," says Ann Wright, a U.S. military veteran who has participated in four Freedom Flotilla journeys and now serves on the steering committee of the Freedom Flotilla Coalition. She calls on citizens of countries around the world to push for the activists' release and an end to Israel's war on Gaza. 

How Israel’s Supporters Play Victim to Justify Genocide & Silence Critics

BreakThrough News   As Israel commits a live-streamed genocide in Gaza, Western media and political elites continue to center one narrative: Jewish fear. But what about the actual victims of this genocide—Palestinians? Journalist Nora Barrows-Friedman joins Rania Khalek on Dispatches for a fearless conversation on Zionist indoctrination in the Jewish diaspora, how antisemitism is being weaponized to silence critics of Israel, and how Jewish identity politics has been manipulated to cover for unspeakable crimes. From the media blackout on Israeli war crimes to the erasure of anti-Palestinian hate crimes—even in the diaspora—Nora lays bare the contradictions and power structures behind it all. 

How the EU is using anti-Russia sanctions to criminalise journalism

The EU sanctioned me and my media outlet for covering Palestine protests in Germany. It’s part of Europe’s growing authoritarianism and militarism, cloaked in language of fighting disinformation and defending democracy.   by Hüseyin Dogru   Part 2 - How the EU uses anti-Russian hysteria to smear Palestine solidarity journalism   The official rationale for sanctioning me hinges on red .’s alleged links to Russian influence. The EU sanctions listing cited just two pieces of “evidence”: that some red. staff had previously worked for Russian-funded media, and that we covered “politically controversial subjects” – specifically: Palestine. That’s it. The listing accuses me, through my work with red ., of “facilitating violent demonstrations”, amplifying “radical Islamic terrorist narratives” and claims our staff “coordinated with occupiers”. Not a single piece of evidence is cited, apart from the fact that we published footage of a pro-Palestine student occupation in Berlin. I...

UN report confirms: Israel is a terrorist state and its goal is to exterminate all Palestinians

Israeli attacks on educational, religious and cultural sites in the Occupied Palestinian Territory amount to war crimes and the crime against humanity of extermination, UN Commission says.     globinfo freexchange Israel has obliterated Gaza’s education system and destroyed over half of all religious and cultural sites in the Gaza Strip, part of a widespread and relentless assault against the Palestinian people in which Israeli forces have committed war crimes and the crime against humanity of extermination, the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem and Israel, said in a new report [yesterday]. While the Commission paid special attention to the situation in Gaza, the report focuses on attacks in the Occupied Palestinian Territory as a whole, and in Israel. “We are seeing more and more indications that Israel is carrying out a concerted campaign to obliterate Palestinian life in Gaza,” said Navi Pi...

Keir Starmer admits Ukraine a proxy war

The Grayzone   The Grayzone 's Max Blumenthal and Aaron Mate on the British PM's unintentional acknowledgement of an inconvenient truth. 

[LIVE] War in the Middle East after Iran's retaliation against Israel

globinfo freexchange      Explosions in Tel Aviv as sirens sound across Israel amid Iranian missile attacks in response to Israeli strikes.      The Israeli military continues to launch waves of strikes against Iranian military and nuclear sites, as well as major cities.   Updates:  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2025/6/13/live-explosions-reported-in-iran-amid-israel-tensions  

UNHINGED CNN, FOX War Propaganda After Iran Strikes

Breaking Points   Krystal and Saagar discuss unhinged war propaganda on mainstream media. 

War criminal Netanyahu is pushing the Orange Clown and the US into the abyss

globinfo freexchange   It seems that the war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu, is rushing to accelerate the decline of the US empire by forcing Donald Trump into an utterly devastating war with Iran.   Trump shot himself in the foot during his first term by killing the Iran nuclear deal just because he wanted to erase everything from the Obama legacy. His insane narcissism pushed him into crazy acts and made him believe that he could make another deal with Iran credited solely on him.   But now he is in big trouble because he has to deal with a corrupted psychopath who won't hesitate to burn the entire planet just to save himself.  As if the genocide of Palestinians in Gaza was not enough, the out-of-control psychopath Netanyahu, is doing whatever he can to drag the US into a war with Iran. As he realized that the Iranians are approaching the negotiating table again, (rather surprisingly with the man that killed the first deal and assassinated Qasem Soleimani), he decide...

How the U.S. & Israel Used Rafael Grossi to Hijack the IAEA and Start a War on Iran

Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), allowed the IAEA to be used by the United States and Israel—an undeclared nuclear weapons state in long-term violation of IAEA rules—to manufacture a pretext for war on Iran, despite his agency’s own conclusion that Iran had no nuclear weapons program.   by Medea Benjamin - Nicolas J. S. Davies On June 12th, based on a damning report by Grossi, a slim majority of the IAEA Board of Governors voted to find Iran in non-compliance with its obligations as an IAEA member. Of the 35 countries represented on the Board, only 19 voted for the resolution, while 3 voted against it, 11 abstained and 2 did not vote. The United States contacted eight board member governments on June 10th to persuade them to either vote for the resolution or not to vote. Israeli officials said they saw the U.S. arm-twisting for the IAEA resolution as a significant signal of U.S. support for Israel’s war plans, revealing how much Isra...

Trump in SHOCK: Putin & China FLIP His Grave Mistake into STUNNING Victory

Danny Haiphong   Putin & China just gave Trump a rude BRICS awakening, and this bombshell will change everything for generations to come. Geopolitical analyst Ben Norton details the truth about Trump's biggest failure against the rising power of BRICS led by Russia and China, and why the US's role as super power is now in serious question.     Related: Trump's tariffs: A unique opportunity for BRICS and the Global South to fully escape from dollar tyranny