The re-election of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States has many in Venezuela extremely concerned. From assassinations, terror campaigns, sanctions and coups, the first Trump administration tried everything short of a full-scale invasion of the country. With a cabinet full of hawks, MintPress assesses the potential for a future U.S. intervention in Venezuela.
Part 5 - Venezuela Libre
Seeing the failure of sanctions to achieve their goal, could the United States be tempted into an Iraq-style military invasion? With people like Erik Prince, Marco Rubio and Elon Musk (who openly called for Maduro’s overthrow) in Trump’s ear, it is far from impossible.
However, a number of factors would seriously complicate this course of action. For one, Trump is promising to carry out the “largest deportation operation in American history.” A significant portion of those immigrants he is targeting come from Venezuela, and Washington would likely need some level of cooperation from Caracas to do so, meaning better relations may be helpful.
Secondly, as Ellner explained, the balance of political forces across Latin America and the world has changed. No longer is the region dominated by reactionary governments, and Venezuela is far less isolated than it was previously. It has even found friends further afield in the BRICS economic bloc.
However, a number of factors would seriously complicate this course of action. For one, Trump is promising to carry out the “largest deportation operation in American history.” A significant portion of those immigrants he is targeting come from Venezuela, and Washington would likely need some level of cooperation from Caracas to do so, meaning better relations may be helpful.
Secondly, as Ellner explained, the balance of political forces across Latin America and the world has changed. No longer is the region dominated by reactionary governments, and Venezuela is far less isolated than it was previously. It has even found friends further afield in the BRICS economic bloc.
The correlation of forces in Latin America is much more favorable, and BRICS represents an alternative bloc for Venezuela. For this reason, Brazil’s veto of Venezuela’s membership in BRICS was a blow, but not a definitive one since Venezuela continues to maintain organizational ties with it and solid economic ties with its member nations, even India.
Finally, in the face of increased threats from the north, the Venezuelan people have not remained passive. Around four million individuals are now enlisted in armed civilian militias. Added to the already competent Venezuelan Armed Forces, these groups are dedicated to defending the country and its social progress, such as free healthcare, public education and widespread extremely low-cost social housing. Thus, while Trump could still have his eyes on Venezuela, he might be well advised not to enter into a conflict that could make Iraq or Afghanistan look like a cakewalk.
Finally, in the face of increased threats from the north, the Venezuelan people have not remained passive. Around four million individuals are now enlisted in armed civilian militias. Added to the already competent Venezuelan Armed Forces, these groups are dedicated to defending the country and its social progress, such as free healthcare, public education and widespread extremely low-cost social housing. Thus, while Trump could still have his eyes on Venezuela, he might be well advised not to enter into a conflict that could make Iraq or Afghanistan look like a cakewalk.
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