China’s rise is no longer measured only in factories, ports, or military strength. It is now measured in money — and specifically, in the reach of its own currency.
In this episode of GVS Deep Dive, Najma Minhas examines how China’s yuan is reshaping the global financial order. Less than fifteen years ago, almost none of China’s cross-border trade was settled in its own currency. Today, more than half is. Saudi Arabia now accepts yuan for oil, Russia clears more than 90% of its trade with China in yuan and rubles, Brazil settles soybeans directly in yuan, and Hungary has issued the largest-ever sovereign yuan bond.
Beijing has built the financial plumbing: swap lines, clearing banks, digital yuan pilots, and the CIPS payment system. Together, these moves create a parallel system less dependent on Washington and the dollar.
History tells us this shift should take decades. The U.S. dollar needed two world wars, the Marshall Plan, and Bretton Woods before it became the world’s reserve currency. But China’s yuan is rising in less than twenty years.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar faces headwinds: sanctions fatigue, political dysfunction in Washington, record deficits, and shaken trust in Federal Reserve independence. As dollar dominance erodes, the yuan offers an alternative — especially for countries seeking to diversify or escape sanctions.
Will the yuan replace the dollar? Not yet. But even if it rises to just 10–15% of global reserves, the balance of financial power will change. The question is no longer if the yuan will matter — but how fast.
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