Nearly
half of US military troops believe America will be drawn into a major
war next year and see Moscow and Beijing as main threats, according
to a recent poll. But is there any basis for this anxiety among
soldiers?
Almost
a half of soldiers and commanders in the US Armed Forces (46%)
believe that their country will be drawn into a large-scale armed
conflict in 2019, reveals a new Military Times' poll of active-duty
troops. They didn't clarify though what kind of war with Russia they
expect. Neither have they presented any analysis of a potential
strategic armed conflict between Moscow and Washington. US servicemen
didn't consider the latest trends and changes in the way our
countries will do combat in the near future. They have briefly
mentioned cyberattacks, but only the ones that took place this year.
The
US military didn't mention the three most important things that play
a major part in any war: goals, methods/ways of achieving those
goals, and means. Basically, they think that the war is imminent, but
they don't know what kind of war it will be.
Even
though tensions in the Russia-US relations have significantly
heightened, neither Washington nor Moscow has ever said anything
about being ready to use armed forces in order to achieve military
and political goals. Seems like the bilateral relations are at their
worst today, but there are no ideological, economic, or territorial
disputes that could provoke a large-scale war within a year.
The
existing and potential local armed conflicts, which political
analysts enjoy listing (making sure they cover everything – from
the Far East and all the way to the Western Hemisphere), will not
cause a major war between Russia and the US either.
The
current situation in Syria proves that point because we see how
Moscow and Washington do everything they can to avoid stepping on
each other's toes in that region. Besides, and this is true for both
countries, neither Russian nor US experts are able to outline
concrete military and political goals, which such a conflict would
pursue, in a few brief statements.
No
one can point out specific economic and sociopolitical factors and
reasons that could trigger a military conflict between the US and
Russia.
It
must also be said that a war can't be spontaneous and preparation for
warfare takes time. Even if the two countries gear up for a
large-scale war as fast as they can, it would take at least six
months to get everything ready. And, given the high level of modern
intelligence systems, it would be impossible to keep the potential
adversary unaware of the preparation process under way.
Apart
from all that, armed confrontation between Moscow and Washington
cannot start with only peacetime combat-ready units going into
battle. It would be an outrageously reckless venture for both sides.
Meanwhile,
there is no intelligence data indicating that strategic deployment of
troops has started in either of the two countries, which means that
no one in Russia or the US is currently busy bringing the armed
forces to combat readiness, or operatively deploying troops to
theatres of war and in strategic space zones, strategically moving
troops from inland areas towards the theatres of military operations,
or deploying priority strategic reserve forces. It means that neither
side is preparing for a large-scale military conflict.
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