As
President Donald Trump prepares to host Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu next week, a group of U.S. intelligence veterans
offers corrections to a number of false accusations that have been
leveled against Iran.
by
Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
MEMORANDUM
FOR: The President
FROM:
Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
SUBJECT:
War With Iran
Part
2 – Rhetoric vs. Reality
We
believe that the recent reporting regarding possible conflict with
nuclear-armed North Korea has somewhat obscured consideration of the
significantly higher probability that Israel or even Saudi Arabia
will take steps that will lead to a war with Iran that will
inevitably draw the United States in. Israel is particularly inclined
to move aggressively, with potentially serious consequences for the
U.S., in the wake of the recent incident involving an alleged Iranian
drone and the shooting down of an Israeli aircraft.
There is
also considerable anti-Iran rhetoric in U.S. media, which might well
facilitate a transition from a cold war-type situation to a hot war
involving U.S. forces.
We have
for some time been observing with some concern the growing hostility
towards Iran coming out of Washington and from the governments of
Israel and Saudi Arabia. National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster is
warning that the “time to act is now” to thwart Iran’s
aggressive regional ambitions while U.S. United Nations Ambassador
Nikki Haley sees a “wake-up” call in the recent shooting
incident involving Syria and Israel. Particular concern has been
expressed by the White House that Iran is exploiting Shi’a
minorities in neighboring Sunni dominated states to create unrest and
is also expanding its role in neighboring Iraq and Syria.
While we
share concerns over the Iranian government’s intentions vis-à-vis
its neighbors, we do not believe that the developments in the region,
many of which came about through American missteps, have a major
impact on vital U.S. national interests. Nor is Iran, which often
sees itself as acting defensively against surrounding Sunni states,
anything like an existential threat to the United States that would
mandate the sustained military action that would inevitably result if
Iran is attacked.
Iran’s
alleged desire to stitch together a sphere of influence consisting of
an arc of allied nations and proxy forces running from its western
borders to the Mediterranean Sea has been frequently cited as
justification for a more assertive policy against Tehran, but we
believe this concern to be greatly exaggerated. Iran, with a
population of more than 80 million, is, to be sure, a major regional
power but militarily, economically and politically it is highly
vulnerable.
FOR
THE STEERING GROUP, VETERAN INTELLIGENCE PROFESSIONALS FOR SANITY
William
Binney, former NSA Technical Director for World Geopolitical &
Military Analysis; Co-founder of NSA’s Signals Intelligence
Automation Research Center (ret.)
Kathleen
Christison, CIA, Senior Analyst on Middle East (ret.)
Graham
E. Fuller, Vice-Chair, National Intelligence Council (ret.)
Philip
Giraldi, CIA, Operations Officer (ret.)
Matthew
Hoh, former Capt., USMC Iraq; Foreign Service Officer, Afghanistan
(associate VIPS)
Larry C.
Johnson, former CIA and State Department Counter Terrorism officer
Michael
S. Kearns, Captain, USAF; ex-Master SERE Instructor for Strategic
Reconnaissance Operations (NSA/DIA) and Special Mission Units (JSOC)
(ret.)
John
Brady Kiesling, Foreign Service Officer; resigned Feb. 27, 2003 as
Political Counselor, U.S. Embassy, Athens, in protest against the
U.S. attack on Iraq (ret.)
John
Kiriakou, Former CIA Counterterrorism Officer and former senior
investigator, Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Edward
Loomis, Jr., former NSA Technical Director for the Office of Signals
Processing (ret.)
David
MacMichael, National Intelligence Council, National Intelligence
Estimates Officer (ret.)
Ray
McGovern, former US Army infantry/intelligence officer & CIA
analyst; CIA Presidential briefer (ret.)
Elizabeth
Murray, Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Near East (ret.)
Todd E.
Pierce, MAJ, US Army Judge Advocate (ret.)
Coleen
Rowley, FBI Special Agent and former Minneapolis Division Legal
Counsel (ret.)
Greg
Thielmann, former Director of the Strategic, Proliferation, and
Military Affairs Office, State Department Bureau of Intelligence &
Research (INR), and former senior staffer on Senate Intelligence
Committee (ret.)
Kirk
Wiebe, former Senior Analyst, SIGINT Automation Research Center, NSA
ret.)
Lawrence
Wilkerson, Colonel (USA, ret.), former Chief of Staff for Secretary
of State; Distinguished Visiting Professor, College of William and
Mary (associate VIPS)
Sarah G.
Wilton, CDR, USNR, (ret.); Defense Intelligence Agency (ret.)
Robert
Wing, former Foreign Service Officer (associate VIPS)
Ann
Wright, Colonel, US Army (ret.); also Foreign Service Officer who,
like Political Counselor John Brady Kiesling, resigned in opposition
to the war on Iraq
Source
links:
Related:
Comments
Post a Comment