According
to ABC, the US is going to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. An
operation may start as early as next month. The UK and Australia will
participate in intelligence efforts, such as identifying targets.
The
US-Iran relationship took a nosedive after Iran threatened to block
the Strait of Hormuz in early July. President Trump told the Iranian
leadership in a tweet that he would respond with force if Tehran’s
hostile anti-US rhetoric did not stop.
The
closure of the strait will inflict significant economic damage on US
allies but benefit American shale oil and gas producers with prices
abruptly going up. About 20 percent of the world's oil supply goes
through the Hormuz Strait. Half of its imports originate in the
Persian Gulf. The blockade of the strait would deliver a crushing
blow against China to make it slide into economic recession.
The ABC
report may be true. It won’t be the first time. The US was behind
the 1953 coup when Prime Minister Mosaddegh was overthrown. State
Secretary Mike Pompeo has recently called on the Iranian people to
rise and overthrow the government. There are other signs the US is
going to interfere in what’s happening in Iran one way or another.
The
geography protects Iran against ground invasion. According to
Stratfor, “Iran is a fortress. Surrounded on three sides by
mountains and on the fourth by the ocean, with a wasteland at its
center, Iran is extremely difficult to conquer.” Obviously, the
US would not be able to use the territory of Turkey. The coastline in
the south is easily defendable. Unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, the US
Army and Marines just can’t go in and advance capturing key
infrastructure objectives. Their mission will probably be controlling
the Hormuz Strait and exercising control over the Iran-Iraq border.
Knocking out nuclear sites, air defenses as well as key command and
control facilities spread across the large territory would require
repeated waves of air and ship-launched strikes over many days.
The
bases in Saudi Arabia and other the UAE could be used by US Air
Force. It’ll be the first time bunker buster bombes will
demonstrate their efficiency. B-2 bombers will arrive from Diego
Garcia, carrying 30,000-pound GBU-57 massive ordnance penetrators
(MOPs) capable of penetrating rock and reinforced concrete to hit
deep-under-earth installations.
An air
campaign can inflict a lot of damage but it’s not enough for
achieving the strategic goal of regime change. Special operations
forces (SOF) can greatly contribute, including knocking out
Russia-supplied S-300 air defense systems. Hit squads and sabotage
teams can inflict damage on nuclear sites and other objects but the
Iran’s geographic position is also not their friend. The US will
depend on Israel’s capabilities to conduct covert operations.
Information
warfare used to instigate uprisings is what the Iran’s enemies
really need. The steps to influence the population are on the way. In
late May, the US and Israel established a joint task force tasked
with amplifying internal pressure on Iran. Khuzestan Province
populated by Shia Arabs will be the prime target for information
warfare offensive. The region is the main oil producer separated from
the rest of the country by the Zagros Mountains. Airdropped US forces
supported by aviation could establish control of heights. Actually,
controlling the province, which is the economic heart of Iran, makes
unnecessary the occupation of other parts of the country. But it’ll
be a fierce battle. Besides, it’s not easy to convince the local
people that they need Americans to make their life better.
Iranian
Kurds are another target for information warfare efforts. In theory,
they could seize and hold the ground in areas adjacent to the Iraqi
border.
The
current economic woes should be exploited by Iran’s ill wishers now
before the situation is improved. That’s what sanctions are for –
to spark internal discontent. New punitive measures against Iran will
be imposed by the United States in early August. All Iranian oil
exports are to be cut off by November to make the country subject to
economic blockade.
With
military actions limited to air, missile and SOF strikes in Iran,
Syria is the place where fighting on the ground would most certainly
spark. It’s highly probable that pro-Iranian forces in Iraq, which
has already been already hit by civilian unrest, would clash with US
military. Proxy forces in other countries are Iran’s strong point.
The hope
that a short victorious campaign will boost the US president’s
approval ratings and increase the GOP’s chances for success at the
midterm election in November has never been abandoned.
Besides,
striking Iran in Syria is the way to hinder the establishment of
Syria government’s control over the county’s territory without
clashing with Russia. This is especially important for the United
States at the time a Kurdish delegation, including the US-supported
Syrian Democratic Forces, is in Damascus to launch talks on reaching
a peaceful deal to preserve Syria’s territorial integrity.
Stability with President Assad in power is not what would make the US
and its allies happy. An attack against Iranian forces in Syria is
the only way to disrupt the negotiation process. It would also hamper
the Russia-led Astana process aimed at achieving peace in Syria.
August could be the hottest month of 2018.
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