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Kώστας Λαπαβίτσας

Μέρος 2ο - Η ιταλική αποτυχία στην ΟΝΕ

Δεν υπάρχει φυσικά αμφιβολία ότι η συμμετοχή της Ιταλίας στην ΟΝΕ αποδείχθηκε καταστροφική για την οικονομία της. Η χώρα δεν έχει ανακτήσει καν το επίπεδο του ΑΕΠ του 2007, όταν ξέσπασε η παγκόσμια κρίση, και οι ρυθμοί ανάπτυξης είναι τελείως αναιμικοί.

Ο κύριος λόγος είναι η συνεχής λιτότητα που απαιτεί η ΟΝΕ, με περικοπές δημοσίων δαπανών και φορολογία που χτυπάνε σκληρά την εγχώρια ζήτηση και δραστηριότητα. Πρόκειται για καταστροφική κατάσταση για ένα μεγάλο στρώμα μικρομεσαίων που κινούνται στην εγχώρια αγορά. Είναι επίσης καταστροφή για τους μισθωτούς γιατί οι μισθοί πιέζονται συνεχώς προς τα κάτω αλλά η ανεργία παραμένει υψηλή, αναγκάζοντας έτσι την ιταλική νεολαία να μεταναστεύει.

Πρόκειται, τέλος, για καταστροφική κατάσταση για το Δημόσιο γιατί, εκτός του ότι οι δημόσιες παροχές περιορίζονται ακατάπαυστα και οι υποδομές έχουν φθαρεί χωρίς προηγούμενο, το δημόσιο χρέος ξεπέρασε το 130% του ΑΕΠ, πράγμα φυσιολογικό όταν δεν υπάρχει ανάπτυξη.

Δεν είναι όμως όλα αρνητικά για όλους. Η περιστολή της εγχώριας ζήτησης περιορίζει τις εισαγωγές, ενώ παράλληλα η μισθολογική πίεση προς τα κάτω έχει ωφελήσει την ιταλική εξαγωγική βιομηχανία. Η Ιταλία είναι η μόνη χώρα της Ευρώπης με μεγάλο βιομηχανικό πλέγμα που μπορεί να ανταγωνιστεί τη Γερμανία.

Η πολιτική που της έχει επιβάλλει η ΕΕ κατάφερε να δημιουργήσει μικρά πλεονάσματα στις εξωτερικές συναλλαγές τα τελευταία χρόνια. Αλλά δεν υπάρχει καμία πιθανότητα η αύξηση των εξαγωγών να οδηγήσει σε ταχύρρυθμη ανάπτυξη, δεδομένου ότι η εγχώρια οικονομία είναι συνεχώς σε καταστολή.

Πηγή:

https://costaslapavitsas.blogspot.gr/2018/05/blog-post_29.html

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