If
intelligent life is so likely to exist elsewhere in the universe, why
haven’t we found it? Well, the chances of us coming across
extraterrestrials are not looking good, according to a new study.
Scientists
from the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University have
revealed that we are probably the only advanced civilization out
there, although they can’t say for sure. The team came to their
conclusion after realizing that Fermi’s paradox and its supporting
theories are somewhat flawed. The paradox is the conflict between the
probability that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe
and the lack of evidence of such.
This is
linked to other theories like the Drake equation, which says that
even if the probability of life elsewhere is small, because of the
vast size of the universe, it is possible that there are a large
number of civilizations somewhere out there.
The
Oxford researchers took another look at the Drake equation and found
how misleading guesswork can be when selecting the parameters to plug
into the equation. Their findings are published in a new study,
‘Dissolving the Fermi Paradox.’
“When
people discuss the [Drake] equation it is not uncommon to hear them
say something like: ‘this parameter is uncertain, but let’s make
a guess and remember that it is a guess,’ finally reaching a result
that they admit is based on guesses,” Dr. Anders Sandberg, one
of the study’s authors, told Universe Today.
“This
often leads to overconfidence, and worse, the Drake equation is very
sensitive to bias: if you are hopeful a small nudge upwards in
several uncertain estimates will give a hopeful result, and if you
are a pessimist you can easily get a low result.”
The
researchers assigned each of the equation’s parameters a range from
the smallest to the largest values they could possibly have, based on
current knowledge. This revealed that in a third of the cases, the
galaxy would be absolutely devoid of intelligent life anywhere else
but Earth. In other scenarios, however, there could be a large number
of civilizations.
It’s
not all bad news, as the scientists’ conclusions don’t rule out
alien life entirely. It just means that it’s more likely that
humans are the only intelligent species in our galaxy at this moment
- but that can all change in the future.
“What
we are not showing is that SETI [search for extraterrestrial
intelligence] is pointless – quite the opposite!” Sandberg
said.
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