by system
failure
The chaotic
puzzle of Middle East requires complex moves by key players. Yet, the
latest move by Erdogan to turn to Putin and try to restore relations
between Turkey and Russia, shows rather that the Turkish leader had
run out of options concerning international alliances.
Although
Erdogan managed to prevent the coup against him and proceeded in an
exhibition of power inside Turkey through increasing
authoritarianism, he probably realized that he couldn't go too far
with no allies outside the country. Initially, the Washington hawks
needed Erdogan, as well as the Saudis, to do the dirty job, which was
to assist Daesh terrorists and other groups in their proxy war
against Bashar al-Assad.
But the
relations between the United States and Turkey probably started to
decline dramatically when Washington realized that Erdogan was using
jihadists to serve his own agenda, which was to expand Turkey's
influence throughout Middle East, as well as, crush the Kurdish
resistance, putting an end to any plans for a Kurdish state.
The whole
game resembles a mob-type exchange between a number of players,
rather than relationships between nations. Furthermore, the high
degree of uncertainty of the developments in Middle East betrays the
multi-polarized power balance in a complex geopolitical terrain.
Starting
from Washington, it is clear that it has lost quickly the control of
various "rebel" groups in Syria and Iraq, especially after
a series of terrorist operations inside US and European soil that
simulate a new type of non-linear war by the jihadists. As a result,
it was forced to compromise with the Russian intervention in Syria,
while silently accepted Iran and Hezbollah to clean up the mess in
the Middle East. It appears that Washington also failed to deal with
Erdogan's "uncontrolled" independence.
Putin, not
surprisingly, forgot his anger and his statement about "stab in
the back" committed by "accomplices of terrorists"
concerning Erdogan and Turkey, after the downing of a Russian jet on
the Turkey-Syria border, less than a year ago. It is clear that
Russia's position was also difficult, not only due to the Western
economic sanctions, but also because many crucial economic projects
with Turkey were frozen. Putin rather easily accepted Erdogan's new
attempt to approach him, as Russia has huge economic and geopolitical
interests in the broader area.
Furthermore,
Putin wouldn't miss the chance to take advantage of the fact that the
relations between the United States and one of its most important
NATO allies, are now probably in the worst position than ever.
Regarding
Turkey, it's not only the coup attempt that made Erdogan more
suspicious about the US intentions. It's also the fact that a
potential Clinton presidency will make his position even more
difficult.
While Obama
seems that he wants to leave without taking the credit for further
mess, Hillary will do everything to show 'who is the boss' again. She
will not tolerate independent agendas from any Western ally, which
means that she will demand full commitment by NATO members to the
neocon/neoliberal agenda. An agenda that includes, of course, a
direct confrontation with the Sino-Russian alliance, in order to
decelerate its quickly growing perspective in the
economic/geopolitical battlefield.
But there is
also another, more symbolic, dimension in this perspective. Think for
a moment Erdogan's position in that case. A Sunnite president will
appear that obeys to a woman and retreats to her power, in front of
millions of his Turkish supporters. Erdogan's dreams to expand his
influence in the broader Sunnite Middle East will end instantly. He
would never accept that, and moreover, he would never accept a
Kurdish state, although the Russians and the Americans have probably
already agreed on that. Therefore, the timing of Erdogan to approach
Putin should not be considered accidental.
Comments
Post a Comment