An
estimation about the recent Turkish invasion in North Syria
It's hard
for someone to believe that the Turkish ground forces invaded North
Syria to fight ISIS. It seems that the US officials decided to calm
down Tayyip Erdoğan and let him play his game for a while, in order
to make him forget Fethullah Gülen and the failed coup of July.
Obama
doesn't want to risk further with the unpredictable Turkish leader,
especially after he showed that he may turn to Putin. Obama also
wants to leave without risking further mess in the Middle East
chaotic puzzle. He will leave the "hot potato" to the hands
of the next US presidency.
Erdoğan
knows that he has limited time before Clinton or Trump in the US
presidency. Therefore, he tries to take as much as he can and
negotiate from a power position when the Syrian hell will end
someday.
Right now,
Erdoğan's main concern is to retain his agenda, thus exploit the
chaos in Syria to enhance the Syrian Turkomans and fulfill his dreams
for territorial and influential expansion in the wider Middle East.
This explains why Turkey demanded YPG Kurdish forces to retreat back
to the east of the Euphrates. Through this move, he tries to maintain
an open corridor between Turkey and Syrian Turkomans, but also, to
sabotage the Kurdish attempt for an autonomous entity in North Syria.
Meanwhile,
it seems that everyone forgot Assad, or, at least accepted him as an
intermediate necessity before the final redrawing of the Syrian map.
Therefore, all the key players try to focus on their agendas.
For this
reason, it is unlikely that the US will abandon Kurds and the plan
for a Kurdish state because they have invested so much in this
perspective all the past years. While Obama wants to leave quietly
without further trouble, it is almost certain that the next US
president will not abandon these plans so easily, just for the sake
of Erdoğan.
Read
also:
Get ready for more war coming to the middle east and a major war between Russia and the USA as I am sure Russia does not want this war in Syria to become the battle field but the US and its supporters will keep the flames alight.
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