by
Tom Clifford
Beijing.
Lunchtime.
A bitter wind is blowing from the north across Beijing making the
temperature seems colder than minus 6 degrees Celsius. I am meeting a
friend. “You must try the chili tofu and parsnip soup.”
Then
before she puts down the menu, she asks me about Trump, and the phone
call.
“He
should not have taken the call,’’ she said as the waitress
took our orders.
I
have always enjoyed my colleague’s company. She is tolerant,
knowledgeable and witty. She wants to live in America. But what she
said next stung me. “There could be war over Taiwan. It is part
of China. Chiang Kai-shek was president of China before he fled there
in 1949. He didn’t flee to a foreign land. He retreated to part of
China.’’
On
almost every other issue, the pace of economic growth, pollution,
health and education investment, my colleague would disagree with
Beijing. She is not a nationalist but on Taiwan she is marching to
the same tune as President Xi Jinping.
Under
the reign of the sixth man to rule the People’s Republic of China,
the country has adopted a strikingly more assertive and nationalistic
tone. It has challenged Japan in the East China Sea and claimed much
of the South China Sea by fortifying islands and building artificial
ones. In response to the US pivot to Asia, China views the South
China Sea as a strategic economic gateway that must be protected. The
Taiwan issue, as it is often referred to in Beijing, was largely
untouched by the inflamed passions. But there is no other more
profound and deeply felt cause for many in China than the
“reunification” of China. In short, Taiwan is the priority for
Chinese nationalists. Anything, in their eyes, that threatens the
status quo will be seen as a clear and present danger.
Trump
does not understand China was the common refrain after the phone call
but more pertinent may be the fact that China does not understand
Trump.
The
signs were evident but have been ignored or wished away. During his
campaign, Trump accused China of raping the US economy. This to
Beijing was a deeply troubling choice of words, apart from immensely
insulting. Within living memory, China has, in 1937, experienced the
mass rape of the residents of a major city by a foreign power.
Accusing China of “raping’’ an economy with which it has close,
and increasingly closer, ties is hurtful and touches a nerve that is
still raw. Currency manipulator? Since the turn of the century, the
renminbi has strengthened against the US dollar though it has bucked
the trend recently as the dollar strengthened. Beijing stayed silent
during the presidential campaign as it did not want to be seen as
“interfering’’. Even after the phone call with the president on
Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, as she is referred to in Beijing, China
displayed a reticence markedly at odds with its usual stridency on
Taiwan.
But
Trump is playing to his supporters who feel comfortable in blaming
China for America’s ills. His nod to protectionism – and threats
of high tariffs on Chinese goods – is seen by Beijing as
endangering the prosperity of China.
The
last time Taiwan was in the spotlight in Sino-US relations was in
1995-96 in a crisis sparked by then Taiwanese leader Lee Teng-hui
visiting Cornell University.
China
reacted by carrying out missile tests in the waters off its “rebel
province”. In response, the US, the biggest display of US military
force in the region since the Vietnam war, sent aircraft-carriers to
the waters around Taiwan.
The
crisis de-escalated. But this is a different China. In 1995-96 there
were doubts that Chinese fighter jets could operate at night. Since
then, and especially in the last few years, it has invested hugely in
its air force and navy and has also developed a new generation of
“carrier-killer” missiles, that could target US aircraft carriers
in the Taiwan Strait.
The
US would no longer risk the show of force that it mounted in the
waters around Taiwan, twenty years ago, many believe in Beijing. But
after the phone call, they may no longer be so sure.
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