Donald
Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel is a
turning point in the history of the Israel-Palestine conflict.
However, the issue is much bigger than Palestine as Donald Trump may
have just lit the match that will set off the powder keg of the Arab
World.
by
Eric Draitser
Part
2 - A crossroads for Palestinian resistance?
It has
been argued by some that Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as
the capital of Israel is a blessing in disguise for the movement for
a free Palestine, for the simple fact that it opens up the
possibility of a united Palestinian resistance. Indeed, the disunity
among the factions – Hamas, Fatah, Popular Front for the Liberation
of Palestine (PFLP), et al – has been one of the seemingly
insurmountable obstacles the Palestinian resistance has faced in
recent years. So, it comes as no surprise that some interpret this
latest development as a potential spark that could rekindle the flame
of Palestinian unity and resistance.
While
the idea of unity within the Palestinian resistance might indeed
become reality – such a development would be watershed moment in
the history of anti-colonial struggle – it is equally possible that
it is more a product of wishful thinking than of cold, hard analysis
of material reality. To that end, it is necessary to raise some
profoundly difficult questions.
First
and foremost concerns the relationship that political factions and
religious institutions in Palestine have with outside actors such as
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and others. With the open conflict between
Saudi Arabia and Qatar that erupted earlier this year, battle lines
within Palestine have also been drawn. While the Saudis have long
been financiers of the Palestinian Authority and its President,
Mahmoud Abbas, Qatar has long been the patron of Hamas, seen by many
as still an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. This fundamental
rivalry has been at the root of much of the internal turmoil within
the Palestinian resistance, where loyalties and patronage have, to a
large extent, determined the politics.
But, of
course, as with all things in the Arab world, the issue goes much
deeper than that. Saudi and Qatari money earmarked for development
programs and aid quite often gets filtered down to religious networks
— sometimes directly into the pockets of influential clerics, who
then push the political agenda of the given patron.
The
Syrian conflict was perhaps the perfect example. As one Palestinian
activist explained to me last year, the “Syria problem” became a
rallying cry for corrupt religious and community leaders who used it
to raise more money and bolster their own positions. As a result,
rifts within Gaza and the West Bank grew, further dividing the
resistance.
What
makes these facts all the more troubling is in considering how they
might impact a move for unity with elements within Palestine, and in
the Palestinian diaspora, which are politically, ideologically,
and/or financially aligned with Lebanese resistance group Hezbollah,
the Syrian Government, and Iran. While the Gulf monarchies have made
the calculation that the war in Syria is lost, that does not mean
they’ll simply cede political ground to their avowed enemies in
Tehran, Damascus, and Southern Lebanon. Equally, who’s to say that
it would all be “water under the bridge,” as those factions that
have backed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Hezbollah aren’t
going to be too keen on allying with their enemies who, from their
perspective, backed the wrong side.
Of
course, there’s also the burning question of what exactly the
Palestinian resistance should be. If it’s an armed intifada or
uprising that will be launched, then surely no reasonable person can
expect victory against the overwhelming military capabilities of
Israel — 11th strongest military in the world, backed as it always
is by the United States — without some form of outside
intervention. And who might intervene?
Surely
people aren’t expecting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman
(MBS), or the Emir of Qatar, or Egypt and Turkey’s
presidents-cum-dictators, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Recep Tayyip
Erdogan respectively, to initiate a broad regional war on behalf of
the Palestinians who offer nothing in terms of political advantage to
the aforementioned opportunists. Palestinians are an oppressed people
rendered politically powerless by the fascist state of Israel and its
patron in Washington. Their struggle may be righteous, but material
reality cares little for righteousness, and much for power.
This is
not to say that armed resistance is a fool’s errand. Rather, it is
an attempt to demonstrate that, from all indications, the necessary
preconditions for a successful armed insurrection don’t seem to be
present. Naturally, the political winds can shift rapidly but, for
now, it seems that the Palestinians will be resisting alone, as
usual.
But what
of the regional dynamics? How do the ongoing conflicts in the Middle
East, and among the major players, impact the resistance in
Palestine?
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